Black Friday Sale! Save huge on InvestingProGet up to 60% off

Brexit referendum timeline: from polls to results

Published 06/23/2016, 05:43 AM
Updated 06/23/2016, 08:10 AM
© Reuters.  Schedule of events for the U.K. referendum on membership in the EU
GBP/USD
-
UK100
-
ESZ24
-

Investing.com – The U.K. began voting on the long-awaited referendum to decide whether or not it remains a member of the European Union (EU) on Thursday with markets anxiously waiting for indications on how the vote is proceeding.

Polling began at 6:00AM GMT, or 2:00AM ET, on Thursday with the voting stations open until 21:00GMT, or 17:00ET.

In the run-up to vote, opinion polls have shown a neck and neck race between those wishing to remain in the EU and those preferring a Brexit, as the vote to leave is known.

The final opinion polls released on June 22 showed a fairly tight potential outcome. A YouGov poll online came in at 51% remain to 49% leave; a ComRes/ITN poll by phone showed at 48% remain and 42% leave with 10% undecided; a TNS poll showed 41% for remain and 43% to leave with 16% undecided and an Opinium poll showed 44% in the remain camp with 45% for leave and 11% undecided.

On Thursday, an Ipsos MORI poll revealed the Remain camp taking back the lead with 52% in favor of keeping EU membership and 48% preferring a Brexit. That compared the surveyor’s June 14 poll that had shown Leave in the lead with 49% and Remain with only 43%.

Furthermore, Populous reported that 55% of people surveyed want to stay in the EU, while 45% want to leave. The 10% gap is the largest in all of the most recent polls.

Despite the fact that the majority of the surveys pointed to a close race, markets appeared to put more credence in the online booking odds along with the late upswing in Remain voters. Online betting firm Betfair showed that the probability of the U.K. voting to remain had risen to 88% on Thursday.

Sterling continued its rally against the dollar on Thursday, passing 1.49 for the first time since December, while the FTSE 100 rose to a two-month high. Stateside, S&P 500 futures were up more than 1%, suggesting the world’s principal index could move towards all-time highs.

Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to indications of the general outcome. YouGov will offer a broader look at how British citizens have voted when it publishes its survey shortly after polling stations close. The findings will be announced by Sky News sometime after 21:00GMT, or 17:00ET.

The U.K. has been divided into 382 voting areas with each one planning to declare their results when the votes have been tallied.

The first regions to report will be Wandsworth and Sunderland at 23:30GMT, or 19:30ET, with the City of London expected to release results at 23:45GMT, or 19:45ET.

Five regions estimated that the their count would be completed by 6:00AM GMT, or 2:00AM ET, on Friday. That was the latest that regions were scheduled to finish their tallies.

However, if, as the recent polls have indicated, the results run neck and neck, the final verdict may not come until the last moment.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.