By Peter Nurse
Investing.com -- Oil prices pushed higher Friday, continuing recent volatile trading as traders wager that the market has overcompensated for the news of a likely release of supply from strategic reserves by some of the world’s major consumers.
By 4:05 AM ET (0905 GMT), U.S. crude futures traded 0.5% higher at $78.80 a barrel, having traded in a range of over $2 the previous session, while the Brent contract rose 0.5% to $81.64. It had fallen to a six-week low on Thursday before rebounding to close a choppy day 1.2% higher.
U.S. Gasoline RBOB Futures were up 0.2% at $2.2996 a gallon.
Crude sold off sharply earlier in the week, with both benchmarks recording their lowest settlement levels since early October, following the news that the United States had asked China, Japan and other big buyers to join a release of crude stocks from their reserves in order to curb the elevated prices.
Both crude benchmarks recorded their lowest settlement levels since early October on Wednesday after the Biden administration requested a coordinated move to release strategic supplies by some of the globe’s largest consumers in order to curb global energy prices.
However, the market has since rebounded, with Goldman Sachs saying the news is now fully priced into the market.
The influential investment bank stated, in a note, that the U.S. is likely to sell at least 20 million to 30 millions barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with a combined 30 million barrels likely from other countries. However, the decline in prices since late October reflects market expectations for more than 100 million barrels.
“Such a release would only provide a short-term fix to a structural deficit,” Goldman analysts said in the note.
The reason the U.S. sought a coordinated move to increase supply was because the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, has decided to implement a very gradual return of the global oil supply to pre-pandemic levels, and has failed to achieve even the modest increases promised.
That said, there could be other reasons for oil prices retreating in 2022, with both the International Energy Agency and OPEC predicting the market to fall back into surplus next year as high prices and the withdrawal of monetary stimulus across many parts of the world cool demand.
The Baker Hughes’ rig count later in the session will give fresh indications as to whether U.S. producers are accelerating output plans. A belated increase in U.S. output over the coming months was a core part of both the OPEC and IEA outlooks.
Additionally, Europe appears to be on the verge of a new wave of demand-killing Covid-19 restrictions, with Germany, the region’s biggest economy, preparing measures to keep unvaccinated people out of offices and public spaces, and neighboring Austria preparinga full lockdown in certain regions.