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Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: February 29 - March 4

Published 02/28/2016, 06:47 AM
Updated 02/28/2016, 03:47 PM
© Reuters.  Oil prices fall on Friday, but still score weekly gain
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Investing.com - Oil prices fell in choppy trade on Friday, erasing gains towards the end of the session as investors booked profits from an earlier rally which took prices to a two-month high.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for April delivery shed 19 cents, or 0.54%, on Friday to close the week at $35.10 a barrel after climbing to an intraday peak of $37.00, the most since January 5.

On the week, London-traded Brent futures rallied $2.09, or 5.95%, the first weekly gain in a month, as hopes that major oil producers will work together to cap output supported prices.

Venezuela oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino said late Thursday that four oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and Qatar, will meet in mid-March to discuss efforts to stabilize the market.

Top oil producers Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to freeze oil production at January levels earlier this month, provided other oil exporters joined in. But Iran stopped short of committing to the proposal, casting doubts over whether the freeze will happen.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in April dipped 29 cents, or 0.88%, to end the week at $32.78 a barrel. Prices climbed to a daily peak of $34.69 earlier, a level not seen since January 28.

Futures turned lower after industry research group Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. decreased by 13 last week to 400, the tenth straight weekly decline.

A lower U.S. rig count is usually a bullish sign for oil as it signals potentially lower production in the future.

Despite Friday’s losses, New York-traded oil futures posted a weekly gain of $1.03, or 3.14%, the second straight weekly rise.

However, analysts warned that market conditions remained weak due to an ongoing glut. U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 3.5 million barrels last week to an all-time high of 507.6 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, underlining concerns over a domestic supply glut.

Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the key delivery point for Nymex crude, rose by 333,000 barrels last week, raising fears that the nation's largest storage facility is nearing full capacity.

Oil futures are down nearly 70% since the summer of 2014. Global crude production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale oil and after a decision by OPEC last year not to cut production in order to defend market share.

Meanwhile, Brent's premium to the West Texas Intermediate crude contract stood at $2.32, compared to a gap of $2.22 by close of trade on Thursday.

In the week ahead, oil traders will be focusing on U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday, amid mounting concerns over a domestic supply glut.

Developments surrounding a potential deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to cap output will also be in focus.

Monday, February 29

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation and Germany is to report on retail sales.

The U.S. is to publish reports on business activity in the Chicago region and pending home sales.

Tuesday, March 1

China is to publish its official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing index.

The euro zone is to report on the unemployment rate and Germany is to release data on the change in the number of people employed.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity, while the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, March 2

The U.S. is to publish the ADP report on private sector jobs creation, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release its weekly report on oil supplies.

Thursday, March 3

China is to publish the Caixin non-manufacturing index.

The U.S. is to release a report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on factory orders and the ISM non-manufacturing index.

Friday, March 4

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched report on nonfarm payrolls and data on the trade balance.

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