On Monday (NASDAQ:MNDY), Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating on DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG), maintaining a steady price target of $57.00. The firm's analyst highlighted several key points from DraftKings' third-quarter earnings report.
The management at DraftKings emphasized efficient customer acquisition throughout the third quarter. However, the fourth-quarter guidance was affected negatively by a period of NFL sports outcomes that were particularly favorable to customers, leading to lower hold rates in October.
Despite the dip in hold rates, DraftKings' management has kept its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance unchanged. The company expects strong customer acquisition to continue, which will impact near-term costs before the benefits are realized. This is anticipated to be balanced by promotional optimization and expense efficiency, especially in states with high taxes.
Additionally, the structural online sportsbook (OSB) hold rates are improving due to a higher mix of parlay bets.
DraftKings has also committed to providing regular disclosures about their online sportsbook and iGaming net revenue on a quarterly basis.
The analyst noted that the near-term discussions are likely to center around the competitive intensity during the remainder of the NFL season and the start of the NBA season, as well as the broader customer acquisition environment looking towards 2025. This includes the growth in monthly unique players (MUP) and the periods required for investment payback, balanced against the intensity of competition.
The timing of DraftKings' launch in Missouri is also on the radar, as it is expected to influence the company's revenue and adjusted EBITDA for 2025. Additionally, there is speculation about how the company might utilize its current $1 billion share repurchase authorization in the upcoming quarters.
The analyst's commentary provides insights into the factors that are currently shaping DraftKings' business outlook and operational strategies.
In other recent news, DraftKings reported a significant 39% increase in year-over-year revenue during its Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call, reaching a total of $1.95 billion. Despite this, the company experienced a $59 million adjusted EBITDA loss.
Looking ahead, DraftKings anticipates generating approximately $850 million in free cash flow in fiscal year 2025. The company's fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance is set at $6.2 billion to $6.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA guidance ranging from $900 million to $1 billion.
DraftKings also highlighted Missouri's recent legalization of online sports betting as a new market opportunity. The company plans to enhance its live betting offerings by integrating Simple Bet and expects a 500 basis point increase in parlay mix during the NFL season.
Despite these positive developments, DraftKings maintains a cautious outlook, particularly regarding customer acquisition spending due to a competitive environment.
InvestingPro Insights
DraftKings' recent performance and future outlook align with several key metrics and insights from InvestingPro. The company's market capitalization stands at $19.57 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the online sports betting and gaming industry.
InvestingPro data shows that DraftKings has experienced robust revenue growth, with a 40.01% increase in the last twelve months as of Q3 2024. This aligns with the company's emphasis on efficient customer acquisition mentioned in the article. Additionally, the revenue growth of 38.68% in Q3 2024 alone underscores the company's strong momentum.
An InvestingPro Tip indicates that analysts anticipate sales growth in the current year, which supports DraftKings' optimistic outlook despite the recent dip in hold rates due to favorable NFL sports outcomes for customers. Another relevant InvestingPro Tip suggests that the company is expected to be profitable this year, which could be linked to the management's commitment to maintaining their 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance.
It's worth noting that DraftKings operates with a moderate level of debt, according to another InvestingPro Tip. This could provide the company with financial flexibility as it navigates the competitive landscape and potential expansion into new markets like Missouri.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 13 additional tips for DraftKings, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.
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