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Yen Higher As Stocks Tumbled On Oil

Published 02/03/2016, 03:53 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
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WTI crude oil extended this week's fall overnight and broke below 30 handle again. The development dragged US equities with DJIA lost -295.6 pts, or -1.8% to close at 16153.54. S&P 500 also dropped -36.35 pts or -1.87% to close at 1903.03. Oil prices was pressured on fading hope of production cut and analysts were pessimistic on a successful deal between OPEC and Russia on the issue. Meanwhile, the API data showed 3.8m barrels inventory build in the week ended January 29. In the currency markets, yen is regaining some strengths on risk average but it's being limited below near term resistance so far. Some weakness is seen in commodity currencies and selling in aussie and loonie might accelerate later in the day. Dollar continues to struggle in tight range against euro and sterling.

DJIA seems to lack the needed follow through buying to push it through 16593.51 near term resistance to confirm near term reversal. Focus is now back on 15863.72 support. Break will bring a test on key long term fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 10404.49 to 18351.36 at 15315.65. This is a key support level for DJIA as firm break there would bring medium term correction that could extend to 14000 level. However, hold on to the level could bring another high above 18351.36 before reversal.

Released from New Zealand, employment rose 0.9% qoq in Q4 versus expectation of 0.8% qoq. Unemployment rate dropped sharply to 5.3% versus expectation of 6.1%. That's the lowest level since 2009. Meanwhile, participation rate dropped from 68.7% in Q3 to 68.4% in Q4. RBNZ governor Graeme Wheeler said that the central bank won't rush to cut rates again because of low inflation. He noted that "it would be inappropriate to attempt to offset the low oil price effect through the OCR." Nonetheless, "if concerns deepen around the prospects for the global economy and its impact on New Zealand, some further policy easing may be needed over the coming year."

Elsewhere, Australia tarde deficit widened to AUD -3.54b in December, building approvals rose 9.2% mom in December. China Caixin PMI services rose to 52.4 in January. UK BRC shop price index dropped -1.9% yoy in January. Japan consumer confidence will be released later in Asian session. UK PMI services and Eurozone retail sales will be featured in European session. US will release ADP employment, ISM services and crude oil inventories.

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