Why Bonds, Not Stocks, Are What Matter For Investors

Published 03/20/2018, 01:01 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
US500
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Rates are rising once again. Over 90% of investors focus almost exclusively on stocks. This is a mistake. The reality is that everything happening in stocks since 2008 has been the direct result of Central Banks creating a bubble in bonds.

Because our current financial system is debt-based in nature (meaning sovereign debt, not gold or some other asset is the bedrock of the financial system) when Central Banks did this, they effectively created a bubble in everything (including in stocks).

Put simply, it is BONDS, not stocks, that concern Central Banks the most. If stocks collapse, it’s a big deal for investors. If bonds collapse, it’s a big deal for entire countries/ the financial system.

With that in mind, consider that bonds have begun to collapse, with US Treasury bond yields (represented by the US 10-year chart below) rising sharply above their downtrends.

UST 10-Y Weekly  2008-2018

THIS is what triggered the February meltdown of markets, including the S&P 500.

SPX Daily Chart

And by the look of things, we’re not done yet. Instead of falling hard, rates have found support and are preparing to break out to the upside again.

UST10-Y Daily

This is a MAJOR warning for stocks. Despite spending over $14 TRILLION trying to corner the bond markets, Central Banks are STILL beginning to lose control. The Everything Bubble is beginning to burst.

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