Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of July 13th through July 17th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of July 13th through July 17th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Sunday, July 12th
Day 2 EUR Eurogroup Meetings: President of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem said,
“You will find in the agreement that some of the issues have been brought forward, meaning that the Greek Parliament will need to legislate very quickly on a number of issues, and so work to recover trust in the whole process and between the member states. There are also very concrete agreements on where the Greek proposals have to be strengthened further: on product markets, labour markets and other reforms. Of course we also needed to address the issue of financing needs and debt, and part of the agreement is that a fund will be established. Assets will be transferred to this fund, and the fund will monetise these assets, either through privatisation or by investing those assets.”
The currency rose.
All Day EUR Euro Summit: President of the European Council Donald Tusk said,
“One can say that we have 'agreekment'. Leaders have agreed in principle that they are ready to start negotiations on an ESM programme, which in other words means continued support for Greece. There are strict conditions to be met. The approval of several national parliaments, including the Greek parliament, is now needed for negotiations on an ESM programme to formally begin. Nevertheless, the decision gives Greece a chance to get back on track with the support of European partners.”
The currency rose.
Monday, July 13th
3:46am CNY Trade Balance 46.5B versus 57.0B expected.
9:30am GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey noted that,
“Lenders reported that default rates on secured loans to households fell significantly in 2015 Q1, and a further fall was anticipated in Q2. Losses given default on secured loans to households also decreased significantly in Q1, but were expected to increase significantly in Q2. Default rates on credit card lending to households fell in Q1, but losses given default rose. Default rates on other unsecured lending to households rose in Q1 whilst losses given default were unchanged.”
The currency fell.
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings: Belgian Finance Minister Johan Van Overtveldt said that,
“The agreement reached overnight foresees immediate action to be undertaken by the Greek government. It will depend on that what can be done in terms of bridge financing... An agreement is there to be executed and I really believe we should expect the Greek government to deliver what has been agreed upon.”
The currency fell.
Tuesday, July 14th
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 10 versus last 8 expected. The currency rose.
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday. The currency rose.
8:15am CHF PPI -0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell. .
9:30am GBP CPI 0.0% versus 0.0% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP PPI Input -1.3% versus -0.7% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP RPI 1.0% versus 1.0% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 29.7 versus 30.6 expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 42.7 versus 51.1 expected. The currency rose.
10:15am GBP Inflation Report Hearings. The currency rose.
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings: Luxembourg’s finance minister Pierre Gramegna said that,
“Thanks to the existing tools of banking union and ESM we were able to handle the Greek crisis in an efficient way. There is an objective need to strengthen the EMU. We can see that we need to deepen cooperation”.
The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales -0.1% versus 0.7% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Retail Sales -0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Import Prices -0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Business Inventories 0.3% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
6:00pm GBP MPC Member Miles said that,
“The ‘hawk – dove’ labels are pretty silly because they suggest some unchanging genetic tendency towards favouring one type of policy; anyone who was like that would be very ill suited to be on the MPC. In some ways the "doves and hawks" stuff is just a harmless shorthand; but there are times when it is (as H L Mencken rather nicely put it) a geyser of pish-posh.”
The currency rose.
Wednesday, July 15th
1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -3.2% versus last -6.9% expected. The currency fell.
3:00am CNY GDP 7.0% versus 6.9% expected.
3:00am CNY Industrial Production 6.8% versus 6.0% expected.
3:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment 11.4% versus 11.2% expected.
3:00am CNY NBS Press Conference noted that,
“In June 2015, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2,428.0 billion yuan, up by 10.6 percent year-on-year (nominal growth rate. The real growth rate was 10.6 percent. The follows are nominal growth rates if there’s no additional explanation). Of the total, the retail sales of consumer goods of units above designated size was 1,200.9 billion yuan, increased 7.8 percent. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 14,157.7 billion yuan, up by 10.4 percent year-on-year. Of the total, the retail sales of consumer goods of units above designated size was 6,625.6 billion yuan, increased 7.4 percent.”
The currency rose.
4:18am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that,
“The Bank will purchase Japanese government bonds (JGBs) so that their amount outstanding will increase at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen. With a view to encouraging a decline in interest rates across the entire yield curve, the Bank will conduct purchases in a flexible manner in accordance with financial market conditions. The average remaining maturity of the Bank's JGB purchases will be about 7-10 years.”
The currency rose.
7:32am JPY BOJ Press Conference: BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that,
“Export and output growth have moderated somewhat, but we expect this to be temporary. But as for the outlook, exports are expected to increase moderately, albeit with some fluctuations, due to improvements in overseas economies and the boost from a weak yen.”
The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3.2% versus 3.3% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 7.0k versus -8.9K expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 5.6% versus 5.5% expected. The currency rose.
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings noted that, . The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales 0.1% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD PPI 0.4% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core PPI 0.3% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 3.9 versus 3.4 expected. The currency rose.
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.4% versus 78.1% expected. The currency rose.
2:15pm USD Industrial Production 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
2:48pm NZD GDT Price Index -10.7% versus last -5.9% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement noted that,
“As consumers increasingly perceive the decline in gasoline prices to be durable, they are more likely to increase their spending. The recent surge in motor vehicle sales and, more broadly, the momentum in retail sales are positive signs that this is starting to occur. This rise in consumer spending, combined with positive indicators of activity in the housing sector and non-residential construction, suggest a notable rebound in growth in the second quarter.”
The currency rose.
3:00pm CAD Overnight Rate 0.50% versus 0.75% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Federal Chairmen Yellen testified that,
“Too many people are not searching for a job but would likely do so if the labor market was stronger. And, although there are tentative signs that wage growth has picked up, it continues to be relatively subdued, consistent with other indications of slack.”
The currency rose.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.3M versus -2.0M expected. The currency rose.
4:15pm CAD BOC Press Conference: Governor Poloz said that,
“I just find the discussion quite unhelpful. It's especially unhelpful when what has happened to the economy is very narrowly defined.” Adding that, “The Canadian economy is undergoing a complex and significant adjustment.”
The currency rose.
8:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams said that,
“I still believe this will be the year for liftoff, and I still believe that waiting too long to raise rates poses its own risks. I know not everyone agrees and there are those who believe we should wait until we’re nipping at the heels of 2 percent. My reasons for advocating a rise before that happens remain the same. Monetary policy has long and variable lags, as Milton Friedman famously taught us. Specifically, research shows it takes at least a year or two to have its full effect.”
The currency rose.
11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 55.2 versus last 52.0 expected. The currency fell.
11:45pm NZD CPI 0.4% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
11:53pm EUR Greek Governor Debt Crisis Vote Pass versus Pass expected. The currency fell.
Thursday, July 16th
2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.4% versus last 3.0% expected. The currency rose.
8:15am CHF Retail Sales -1.8% versus 1.9% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Final CPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings. The currency fell.
12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.05% versus 0.05% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases -5.45B versus 8.21B expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference: ECB President Draghi said that,
“Now, if things continue to proceed in a positive way, as they have done in the last two days, we will have a phase during which the Bank of Greece and the ECB, which are working very actively in monitoring the situation, will look at exactly the needs of the Greek economy: how can they be gradually satisfied? What are the general conditions so as to make sure that we are always there, ready to provide the Greek economy with the needed liquidity, and at the same time we don't risk a bank run again? In the meantime, all these developments are improving the quality of collateral that the Greek banks can post. Because, you see, each time we have an improvement in the quality of the Greek government paper, we have an improvement in the quality of the collateral of the banks.”
The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 281K versus 284K expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 5.7 versus 11.9 expected. The currency rose.
7:00pm GBP BOE Governor Carney said that,
"It would not seem unreasonable to me to expect that once normalisation begins, interest rate increases would proceed slowly and rise to a level in the medium term that is perhaps about half as high as historic averages. In my view, the decision as to when to start such a process of adjustment will likely come into sharper relief around the turn of this year”.
The currency fell.
7:30pm USD Federal Chairmen Yellen testified that,
“Efforts to further increase transparency, no matter how well intentioned, must avoid unintended consequences that could undermine the Federal Reserve’s ability to make policy in the long-run best interest of American families and businesses”.
The currency rose.
Friday, July 17th
1:30pm CAD Core CPI 0.0% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD CPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Building Permits 1.34M versus 1.11M expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD CPI 0.3% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Housing Starts 1.17M versus 1.10M expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 93.3 versus 96.0 expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD FOMC Member Fischer has not yet spoken.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.11379 open to a 1.08527 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 122.539 open to 123.969 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.55190 open to a 1.56335 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.74218 open to a 0.73739 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.26920 open to a 1.29901 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 0.6701 open to a 0.6530 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.