Investors in UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH), a Dow Jones component, have enjoyed robust returns so far in 2021. UNH stock, which trades around $545.45, is up 29.2% year-to-date, and 41% in the past 12 months. In October alone, shares gained more than 15%.
The 52-week range for UNH stock has been between $307.36 (Nov. 2, 2020) and $465.76 (Nov. 1, 2011). The current price supports a dividend yield of 1.28%, and the company’s market capitalization stands at $427.9 billion.
United Health, which provides health-care insurance and benefits services, issued robust Q3 metrics in mid-October. Revenue of $72.3 billion was up 11% year-over-year. The company reports earnings in two main segments: Optum, which is the health information technology and services firm, and UnitedHealthcare, which offers health benefits to individuals, employers, and Medicare beneficiaries.
The insurer’s bottom line in Q3 also increased 28.8%, translating into adjusted earnings of $4.52 per share. Cash flow from operations stood at $7.6 billion. During the quarter, the group returned $1.4 billion to shareholders via dividends, and repurchased 2.5 million shares for $1.1 billion.
Investors were pleased with United Health’s upbeat performance. Management also increased the full-year adjusted earnings to $18.65-$18.90 per share.
Next Move In UNH Stock?
Among 28 analysts polled via Investing.com, United Health Group shares have an outperform rating, with an average 12-month price target of $472.49. Such a move would imply an increase of close to 4% from the current level. The target range is between $360 and $522.
In other words, Wall Street believes the current price incorporates most of the current good news for United Health, and that there could be short-term profit-taking and choppiness in UNH stock.
Although investors might want to buy UNH stock for their long-term portfolios, they could also be nervous about a potential decline in the near future. Therefore, some investors might prefer to put together a "poor person's covered call" on the stock instead.
So today we introduce a diagonal debit spread on UNH by using LEAPS options, where both the profit potential and the risk are limited. Such a strategy could be used to replicate a covered call position at a considerably lower cost, and also help decrease the portfolio volatility.
Investors who are new to the strategy might want to revisit our previous articles on LEAPS options first (for example, here and here), before reading further.
Diagonal Debit Spread On UNH Stock
Price: $455.45
A trader first buys a “longer-term” call with a lower strike price. At the same time, the trader sells a “shorter-term” call with a higher strike price, creating a long diagonal spread.
Thus, the call options for the underlying stock have different strikes and different expiration dates. The trader goes long one option and shorts the other to make a diagonal spread.
In this strategy, both the profit potential and risk are limited. The trader establishes the position for a net debit (or cost). The net debit represents the maximum loss.
Most traders entering such a strategy would be mildly bullish on the underlying security. Instead of buying 100 shares of UNH, the trader would purchase a deep-in-the-money LEAPS call option, where that LEAPS call acts as a “surrogate” for owning the stock.
For the first leg of this strategy, the trader might buy a deep in-the-money (ITM) LEAPS call, like the UNH 19 Jan. 2024, 340-strike call option. This option is currently offered at $137.25. It would cost the trader $13,725 to own this call option that expires in about two years and two months instead of $45,545 to buy the 100 shares outright.
The delta of this option is close to 80. Delta shows the amount an option’s price is expected to move based on a $1 change in the underlying security.
If United Health group stock goes up $1 to $456.45, the current option price of $137.25 would be expected to increase by approximately 80 cents, based on a delta of 80. However, the actual change might be slightly more or less depending on several other factors that are beyond the scope of this article.
For the second leg of this strategy, the trader sells a slightly out-of-the-money (OTM) short-term call, like the UNH 17 Dec. 2021 460-strike call option. This option’s current premium is $9.90. The option seller would receive $990, excluding trading commissions.
There are two expiration dates in the strategy, making it quite difficult to give an exact formula for a breakeven point in this trade. Different brokers might offer “profit-and-loss calculators” for such a trade setup.
Calculating the value of the back-month option (i.e., LEAPS call) when the front-month (i.e., the shorter-dated) call option expires requires a pricing model to get a “guesstimate” for a break-even point.
Maximum Profit Potential
The maximum potential is realized if the stock price is equal to the strike price of the short call on its expiration date. So the trader wants the UNH stock price to remain as close to the strike price of the short option (i.e., $460) as possible at expiration (on Dec. 17, 2021), without going above it.
Here, the maximum return, in theory, would be about $1,305 at a price of $460 at expiry, excluding trading commissions and costs. We arrived at this value using an options profit-and-loss calculator. Without the use of such a calculator, we could also arrive at an approximate dollar value. Let’s take a look:
The option seller (i.e., the trader) received $990 for the sold option. Meanwhile, the underlying UNH stock increased from $455.45 to $460, a difference of $4.55 per share, or $455 for 100 shares.
Because the delta of the long LEAPS option is taken as 80, the value of the long option will, in theory, increase by $455 X 0.8 = $364.
However, in practice, it might be more or less than this value. There is, for example, the element of time decay that would decrease the price of the option. Meanwhile, changes in volatility could increase or decrease the option price as well.
The total of $990 and $364 comes to $1,354. Although it is not the same as $1,305, we can regard it as an acceptable approximate value.
Understandably, if the strike price of our long option had been different (i.e., not $340), its delta would have been different, too. Then, we'd need to use that delta value to arrive at the approximate final profit or loss value.
Here, by not investing $45,545 initially in 100 shares of United Health, the trader’s potential return is leveraged.
Ideally, the trader hopes the short call will expire out-of-the money, or worthless. Then, the trader can sell one call after the other, until the long LEAPS call expires in about two years and three months.
Bottom Line
The earnings season has brought robust metrics from United Health Group, followed by a run-up in UNH stock price. Investors saw growing revenues and a healthy balance sheet. As such, we find UNH stock to be a solid choice for most portfolios, either as a buy-and-hold investment, or as part of a trading strategy as in the example given above.