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USD ASIA FX Is Very Offerish

Published 01/04/2021, 02:26 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
USD/THB
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USD/KRW
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USD/CNY
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KS11
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USD/CNH
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USD/KRW opened at 1087.5 and traded heavily down to 1080 on the back of the higher KOSPI, it was strong export data over the holiday weekend that opened the door to equity market inflows. The Won was further supported by lower USD in general with USD/CNH trading below 6.45.

The stronger Yuan is having that predictable gravitational pull-on G-5 and Asia EM FX currencies. However, at the current positioning levels, some traders might be finding themselves a little bit over their G-5 currency skis in the short term especially if the Georgia Senate race stays Republican, implying less fiscal stimulus. Hence, they are not selling the dollar with the same vigour in G-5 as in EM FX Asia.
 
But that is not too unexpected as Asia EM FX stand most to gain from the vaccine rollout.

USD/CNH has steadily headed lower, down to 6.4490 this morning. China's weaker-than-expected Caixin PMI data did not stop the slide, as traders took an Asia risk-friendly read on the latest Georgia State Runoff polls which are shading Democratic, implying fewer toxic frictions between China and the US in the future.

ASEAN markets remain in full rev catch up mode as smaller regional bourses could outperform China/Taiwan as economic 'normalization' should boost inexpensive South Asia at China/Taiwan's relative expense. At the same time, I am stilling holding an optimistic view in Korea and Japan, for now, to capture the cyclical momentum in the near term. All this supports regional FX markets, the Malaysian Ringgit, for example, where the stars also align with higher oil prices. 

However, USD/THB Tom, next funding went to -121% at year-end. Indeed, this could be a tool used to stem THB appreciation if the BoT wants to pull a chapter out of the PBoC old playbook, at least for speculators. If you are short USD/THB and your roll in tomorrow vs next day costing -121% overnight, it is far too costly to keep the position. One-month points were equally heavy and traded to -5 this morning. FX points could remain depressed until the spot is supported and USDTHB moves back above 30 or higher. 

Although many countries are extending social distancing measures, they are little more than speed bumps rather than brick walls.

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