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Warning: Don’t Trust This Rally

Published 06/30/2016, 10:04 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
US500
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US2000
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The market has exploded higher based on verbal intervention.

The verbal intervention came from Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble. Yesterday Schauble announced that, “measures to avoid market chaos have been successful.”

Traders took this to mean that Central Banks were coordinated a massive intervention. So everyone on the planet bought stocks.

The reality however is that this is the usual end of the month performance gaming, combined with short covering. Volume has been ABYSMAL on this rally because no one actually believes it.

And why would they?

EU banks (NASDAQ:EUFN) are imploding, trading at levels not seen since the depths of the 2011-2012 crisis.

iShares MSCI Europe Financials

In the US, the Russell 2000, which tends to lead the S&P 500, has failed to confirm the move higher. If anything, it suggests we’re going to new lows.

iShares Russell 2000

This whole situation is feeling just like late 2007/ early 2008. Once again stocks are holding up because investors believe central banks can save the world despite the obvious warning signs that a major crisis is coming.

If you are not preparing for a bear market in stocks, you NEED to do so NOW.

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