Here is your Bonus Idea with links to the full Top Ten:
Oh my gosh, how many times has that Windows 10 logo popped up on your screen? If you have not upgraded to Windows 10 like over 220 million people have then I am sure it is well over 100 times. Microsoft (O:MSFT) has had a lot of conversions into this product. And the stock has been moving higher throughout the campaign. Until last week that is.
The stock jumped in October, rising out of a descending triangle. At that point the target price on a move higher would take it to 58.15. It has fallen short of that so far. But the gap higher to 52.25 has held up so far. Last week puts that in jeopardy though.
A break below would look for a retracement down to between 49.50 and 48 at least. This would leave an island top and confirm a false long term break out. That would be very disappointing for the tech sector. But a hold at 52.25 and reversal higher would almost certainly help to turn the market around. With a push over 56.75, the December high, adding strength.
The RSI is dipping into the bearish zone while the MACD is falling. These support more downside and a closing of the gap. The Bollinger Bands® are opening lower as well. But the price is outside of the Bollinger Bands, so a bounce or stall here should not surprise anyone.
Support below 52.25 comes at 49.75 and 48.85 followed by 48 and 47.25. Resistance higher now stands at 54 and 55 followed by 56.50. Short interest is low, under 1% and the company is expected to report earnings next January 28th after the close.
The options chains show large open interest this week at the $2.50 increment strikes with the largest at the 50 strike below. The call side shows about twice the open interest of the put side and has big size at the 60 Strike as well. Moving to the January 29th Expiry, after earnings, shows most of the open interest above the current price. The biggest open interest comes at 55 and 57.5 on the call side and 56.5 on the put side. It also shows an expected move from now until earnings of about $4. Just not in what direction. Stepping out a bit further to February expiry sees calls far outweighing puts and large open interest at 57.5 and 60.
Microsoft
Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock on a move over 53 with a stop at 52.
A straight stock trade.
Trade Idea 2: Buy the stock with a January 29 Expiry 52/48 Put Spread and sell a February 57.5 Calls (80 cent collar).
Adds a collar for protection to the gap through earnings.
Trade Idea 3: Sell the stock short on a move under 52 with a stop at 53.
Looking for a gap fill or more.
Trade Idea 4: Buy the January 29 Expiry 52/48 Put Spread ($1.34).
A controlled risk method for capturing the gap fill.
Trade Idea 5: Buy the January 29 Expiry 52/50-48 1×2 split strike Put Spread (free).
Captures part of the gap and would give an entry to the stock at $46 on a move under 48 at Expiry.
After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, the worst first week of the New Year ever. Now heading into January options expiration there really does not look to be any relief in sight for the equity markets.
Elsewhere look for gold to continue the bounce higher in its downtrend while crude oil burns lower. The US dollar index looks to continue consolidation at its highs while US Treasuries are biased higher in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets are biased to the downside and looking really ugly.
Volatility looks to remain elevated keeping the bias lower for the equity index ETFs N:SPY, N:IWM and O:QQQ. Their charts also point lower with perhaps a pause or oversold bounce in the short run, but with their intermediate term charts moving decidedly more bearish. The one possible exception is the QQQ which remains somewhat above the August lows. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.
Disclaimer: The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog. Please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.