Top 10 Forex Events For The Week Of June 11-15, 2012

The week ahead will get underway with the markets reacting to the news of a Spanish bailout. A sequence of notable consumer spending, inflation and industrial activity data from the U.S. and the eurozone, along with three interest rate announcements from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan, promise to keep traders occupied but remaining on the side of caution ahead of the Greek election on June 17. 

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe. 

1.    EUR- France Parliamentary Election, Sunday, June 10, all day event. 

Voters in France will take to the polls in the first round of a parliamentary election. The second round will take place a week later on June 17- the day of the crucial election in Greece. Early exit polls estimate that the French Socialist Party will be able to gain majority in the parliament, helping President Hollande implement his election platform that could become a roadblock to the EU fiscal treaty and austerity programs.

2.    GBP- U.K. Industrial Production, Tuesday, June 12, 4:30 am, ET.

The report could weigh on the GBP with forecasts pointing to a mixed bag of data. The overall manufacturing output could lose steam with 0% m/m increase in May after rising by 0.9% m/m in April, while the overall industrial production inches higher by 0.2% m/m following the 0.3% m/m decline in the previous month.

3.    USD- U.S. Retail Sales, Wednesday, June 13, 8:30 am, ET.

Consumer spending in the U.S. is forecast to drop by 0.1% m/m in May after increasing by a minimal 0.1% m/m in April. The report could join the growing list of weak U.S. economic data, raising the odds that the Fed might be forced to consider additional monetary policy easing as early as their next meeting on June 19-20. 

4.    NZD- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Announcement, Wednesday, June 13, 5:00 pm, ET. 

The first of the three major central bank meetings for the week is not expected to show the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as willing to change the course of its monetary policy in the current environment of global slowdown and EU debt crisis uncertainty. The bank is forecast to keep its benchmark rate at 2.50% while issuing a cautious outlook on the economy.

5.    CHF- Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Announcement, Thursday, June 14, 3:30 am, ET.

All eyes will be on the Swiss National Bank for any announcements or hints of additional measures to weaken the franc and to defend the EUR/CHF floor at 1.20 established in September, 2011. With the euro incapable of strengthening on its own against the Swiss franc, as pressure on the single currency rises despite of the news of a bailout for Spanish banks and anxiety levels jump ahead of the Greek election on June 17, the SNB might have no other choice but to take decisive action. Some of the options discussed recently by the SNB and the Swiss government include: negative interest rates, taxes and restrictions on new franc holdings.

6.    EUR- Eurozone HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Thursday, June 14, 5:00 am, ET.

Inflationary pressures in the eurozone are expected to subside to 2.4% y/y in May, approaching the 2% ECB inflation target. The pullback in inflation creates a more comfortable environment for the European Central Bank to cut rates if needed to stimulate growth. 

7.    USD- U.S. Jobless Claims and CPI-Consumer Price Index, Thursday, June 14, 8:30 am, ET.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits are forecast to inch lower to 375K from 377K in the previous week, while the inflation gauge falls by 0.2% in May after a flat 0% m/m reading in April.

8.    JPY- Bank of Japan Interest Rate Announcement, Friday, June 15, around 12:00 am, ET.

With the European Central Bank and the Bank of England sitting on the sidelines despite of political pressure to ease monetary policy further, and the Fed Chairman not in a hurry to give any hints of QE3 during his testimony in front of the Joint Economic Committee in Washington, DC, the Bank of Japan could follow suit and decide to hold off the easing button. On the other hand, the yen could weaken if the bank decides to expand its quantitative easing operations.

9.    USD- U.S. Industrial Production, Friday, June 15, 9:15 am, ET.   

Another potentially weak report from the world’s largest economy could show the overall output of U.S. factories, mines and utilities staying flat with 0% m/m increase in May after rising by 1.1% m/m in April.

10.   USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, Friday, June 15, 9:55 am, ET.
 
The U.S. consumer sentiment index has managed to hold up well in recent months despite of the deteriorating conditions in the labor market, but not for long. The consensus forecasts point to a move lower with the index expected to decline to 77.5 in June from 79.3 in May.

With the week’s economic reports forecast to bring yet another sequence of data signaling a slowdown in the world’s largest economy, QE3 odds could rise again increasing the pressure on the U.S. dollar ahead of the Fed’s meeting on June 19-20.

Editor's Note: For a more comprehensive look at scheduled market-moving events this coming week see Investing.com' weekly Economic Calendar.