After a brutal few months, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) closed Monday at $233, down another 2.5% after tagging a fresh low earlier in the session.
The broader market is feeling the heat, too, with the S&P 500 continuing to whipsaw and briefly dipping to a new 52-week low amid intensifying fears around tariffs, trade wars, and geopolitical volatility.
Tesla shares are now 52% below their December all-time high, but for nearly three weeks, the stock has been consolidating between $220 and $250, and it looks like the bears might be struggling to push it lower. However, just as the stock appears to be stabilizing, a fresh headline could muddy the water once again.
A Cut That Still Implies Big Upside
On Monday, Wedbush's Dan Ives, Tesla's most vocal Wall Street bull, reiterated his Outperform rating on the stock but significantly slashed his price target from $550 to $315. This came in the wake of what he called a "perfect storm" of challenges. That's a hefty 43% cut and one that caught plenty of attention given Ives' longstanding optimism around Tesla's long-term prospects.
Still, despite the downgrade, he maintained an Outperform rating and emphasized that even with the lowered target, he sees a 35% upside from Monday's closing price. That's a meaningful number, especially for a stock that's already down by half in just a few months.
The rationale behind Ives' target cut centers on the sweeping tariffs announced last week by President Trump. Ives called the measures a "disaster" for Tesla, pointing to the potential for consumer backlash in China and Europe, where Musk's alignment with the Trump administration may be more politically damaging than beneficial.
In Ives' words, Tesla has "essentially become a political symbol globally," a shift that's doing real harm to the brand. He estimated the company has already lost 10% of its future global customer base due to "self-created brand issues," a number that could climb to 20% in key European markets. With protests erupting over the weekend and the optics around Musk worsening, Ives warned that the company is facing a "brand crisis tornado" that has morphed into an "F5 tornado."
But Not All Is Lost
Despite the warning tone, Ives hasn't lost faith in Tesla's long-term roadmap. He still sees meaningful value in the company's autonomous driving capabilities, potential lower-cost models, and robotics ambitions. He explicitly called on Musk to "step up, read the room, and be a leader," hinting that the right messaging and execution could still turn the ship around.
In that light, the reduced $315 target looks less like a warning to sell and more like a recalibration of timing. Wedbush is now reportedly reworking its projections for 2025 and 2026, but the core thesis that Tesla remains a long-term innovation leader hasn't been abandoned.
A Technical Setup That's Starting to Stabilize
While headlines continue to swirl, the chart tells a story of a stock finding its footing. The area around $230 appears to be forming a firm support base, and as long as the stock holds above it, the risk-reward setup continues to look attractive for investors with a higher risk appetite. A move above $250 could start to attract technical buyers and force shorts to cover, especially with the broader market bouncing off last week's lows.
Meanwhile, the RSI continues to rise off deeply oversold levels, and the MACD remains in positive territory after flipping bullish earlier this month. The bears may have controlled the narrative for most of Q1, but technically speaking, they're losing momentum.
What's Next
The next major catalyst is Tesla's earnings report later this month. Expectations are low, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. It could be enough to re-ignite investor interest if Musk and the team can deliver even a modest upside on deliveries or margins and avoid additional political missteps.
Still, the risks are very real. The backlash in Europe and China, combined with domestic political scrutiny, creates a difficult environment. Add in tariff uncertainty and a skittish equity market, and it's clear Tesla is still navigating through stormy waters.