T2108 Status: 81.6%
T2107 Status: 39.3%
VIX Status: 14.9
General (Short-term) Trading Call: cautiously bullish
Active T2108 periods: Day #29 over 20%, Day #28 over 30%, Day #25 over 40%, Day #22 over 50%, Day #18 over 60%, Day #17 over 70%, Day #15 over 80% (overbought)
Commentary
The market momentum I described in the last T2108 Update titled “A Different Kind of Breakout” has clearly wound down a bit. No one should be surprised by this sudden change given the latest terrorist activity in Belgium that itself follows closely upon similar atrocities in Turkey and the Ivory Coast. These are the kinds of events that cannot be anticipated but must be accounted after the fact. After the fact, these tragedies found a market floating on good momentum and ever-strengthening sentiment alongside a broadening rally. The weight is now heavy in more ways than one. At least I personally cannot help shake that sinking feeling even as I know this too shall pass. In other words, expecting a pullback for the S&P 500 (SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY)) at this juncture that tests 200DMA support seems almost like a no-brainer…especially given such a test is only a 1% drop away.
The S&P 500 is now clinging to its nice uptrend channel (between Bollinger Bands). A retest of 200DMA support is now in play.
My favorite technical indicator, T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) first went overbought on March 1st. It set the tone for trading for most of this month. However, after hitting the 80% range on March 3rd, T1208 has made no further progress. T2108 closed today at 81.6%. This lack of progress is fine if T2107, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, is still making progress. Unfortunately, that progress came to a halt this week. T2107 has now recorded its first 3-day losing streak since the bounce from oversold conditions began on February 12th. It closed today at 39.3%. Even though the losses have been marginal, I am raising my alert level a bit.
The S&P 500 is up 2.9% since T2108 first went overbought, including a very bullish 200DMA breakout. If this overbought period had ended today (day #17), we would have expected the S&P 500 to gain next to nothing for the overbought period. I base this observation on the chart of historical data below. So, the market is doing pretty well. If the overbought period ends in the next few days, we should expect downside risk of about 3%. If this overbought period can survive another week or so, I expect a fresh momentum and rally to take off.
S&P 500 Performance By T2108 Duration Above the 70% Threshold
The Australian dollar (NYSE:FXA) is now adding to my alert level. The Aussie STILL has failed to crack resistance against the Japanese yen (NYSE:FXY). On today’s selling, AUD/JPY almost confirmed 200DMA resistance with a sharp reversal.
AUD/JPY continues to struggle against 200DMA resistance. A Bollinger Band (BB) squeeze is building that could help resolve the next direction once it resolves.
On the other hand, the volatility index, the VIX, has barely budged off recent lows. the VIX is even still below the 15.35 pivot. Market jitters are certainly nowhere near elevated yet.
The volatility index (VIX) has barely responded to the market’s waning momentum.
Overall, I am keeping my short-term trading call at cautiously bullish. I am expecting that trading call will get tested within the next week.
I conclude with two contrasting charts that are of great interest.
Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) is breaking out for the second time in two weeks. In between was a breakdown. The 50 and 200DMAs have now perfectly converged. My instinct says this breakout is the “real deal,” but my caution says to wait to see buyers prove themselves by taking AMZN above the last high. I have also been burned twice trying to play both ends of the breaks from converged support/resistance.
Amazon.com (AMZN) is pivoting when it should be breaking out or down….
Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) has had a fantastic post-earnings run-up. TSLA gained a whopping 58% from its post-earnings close to the last high on Monday, March 21, 2016. This is incredible even for a momentum, cult-like stock like TSLA! Last week’s breakout seemed to herald yet more sustained momentum. Instead, TSLA broke right back down below its 200DMA today. I THINK this puts a 50DMA retest in play given the breathtaking run-up. Recent buyers MUST be itching to take profits here. If the breakdown gets confirmed with another day of selling, 50DMA support goes into play. If TSLA quickly overcomes this setback, I am waiting for a new high before assuming the previous momentum from the run-up has restarted…especially given the pivoting I have painfully experienced with AMZN.
The momentum in Tesla Motors (TSLA) is finally showing some signs of waning momentum with a 200DMA breakdown.
Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500
Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
Red line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
Weekly T2108
Be careful out there!
Full disclosure: short AUD/JPY