No surprises in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. The Fed funds rate was unchanged and the projections on where rates will be over the next 3 years remained the same as in December.
The differences came in the Fed’s projections for the economy (2025 growth revised down from 2.1% to 1.7%) and inflation (Core PCE for 2025 revised up from 2.5% to 2.8).
With the unemployment rate projections holding steady at around 4.3% to 4.4% (currently 4.1%).
They downplayed the recent decline in personal spending and rising inflation expectations. Calling it a slowdown, rather than the start of anything more. And citing the long run inflation expectations remain in good shape.
It’s all just an educated guess. You can’t take it all too seriously.
Stocks moved higher, while interest rates came down a little. And the US Dollar declined after the 2 pm announcement.
The next real hurdle for the stock market is around 5750-5785 on the S&P 500 (highlighted area above on the chart attached below).
There is a confluence that includes but not limited to:
- 200-day moving average
- March 7th open price gap
- January’s swing low
- The post-election gap
- 38% retrace level
What was once support may now become resistance. The bulls will want to get prices above sooner than later. We’ll see. 