S&P 500 Nears Death Cross as Traders Watch for Potential 200 MA Retest

Published 04/11/2025, 01:33 AM

While it's not a guarantee, it's not uncommon for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) to bounce after a significant drop and retest its 200 MA, following the formation of a bearish moving average Death Cross.SPX Technicals

We may be at that point, as the 50 MA is poised to drop below the 200 MA in the next couple of days, as shown on the following daily chart.

As you can see, the SPX has plunged a great deal since it reached its high of 6147.43 on February 19 in connection with President Trump's global tariff war, before reversing and spiking following its low of 5069.90 on April 4. It closed yesterday at 5268.05 in a very large and volatile trading range.S&P 500-Daily Chart

A spike to around 5750ish to retest its 200 MA is possible (and close the gap down between April 2 and 3), given that the RSI, STOCH, and MACD indicators are hinting of such a scenario -- and that volatility is extreme, as shown on the following SPX:VIX daily Ratio chart -- before resuming its downtrend.

With the drama of Trump's day-to-day tariff/trade flip-flops, anything's possible, so we'll see what happens.SPX:VIX Ratio-Daily Chart

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