S&P 500: Levels, Ranges and Targets

S&P 500 500 achieved lifetime highs at 4817.88 on January 2022 and since dropped to 3490.00 lows in October 2022 or 1327 points and 147.54 points per month. SPX at 150 points per month is fairly average since 2015. The overall move was valued at a 27.56 % drop.

The lifetime highs at 4817.88 is the overall result from 2015 lows at 1800.00s.
From the September and December 2022 posts: SPX trades between 2 vital averages at 3774.69 to 3534.40. Below 3534.40 targets the 5 year average at 3367.25 then 3193.52.
Above 3774.69 targets 4121.26 and 4316.71 then on the way to 4511.52 and 4598.46. At 4500’s is top and maximum top range.

SPX from September 28th post traded from 3491.76 to 4103.62 or 611 points at 203 points per month. SPX traded above vital 3774.69 and target at 4121.26 fell short by 23 pips.

The 5 year average in December at 3367.25 is now 3451.53 and a rise of 84 pips. Today’s 5 year average is now 3593.83.

SPX since September broke above 3774.69 and traded to highs at 4458.43 and 53 points short of the 4511.52 target.

The SPX trade posts are few over past years due to low and dead range movements but trades always achieve 5 and 700 point targets.

SPX at current 4450.38 trades overbought from monthly averages from 1 month to 10 years. The current range trades from 4207.48 to 4431.36 and top at 4495.85. Break of 4207.48 targets next averages 4053.96 and 4028.85.
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Breaks at 4053.96 and 4028.85 trades a range from 4028.85 to 3792.85 and 200 points from the September 2022 range. The level at 4028.85 is in the way from September’s range at 3792.85 to the 5 year average at 3593.83.

Targets on a break at 4028.85 are found at 3919.11, 3834.72. Any price on approach to the 5 year average at 3593.83 is an automatic long to challenge 3792.85 and higher.
SPX for 2023 is viewed as a range year and not to match 20222, 2021 and 2020 at 1400 points, 1100 and 1500 for 2020.

We can add SPX 2023 to historic range years since 2015.

2023 = 3793.57 to 4458.40 or 664.73 points and 17.52% or 110 points per month. 
2022 = 4800 to 3400, a drop of 1400 points or -29% and 116 points per month.
2021= 3660 to 4800’s or +1148.81 or +31% and 95 points per month.

2020 = 2199.35 to 3766.47, +1567.12 or +71% and 130 points per month.
2019 =2448.14 to 3244.86 or +796 points or +32% and 66 points per month.
2018 =2346.89 to 2942.20 or +595 points or +25% and 49 points per month.

2017 = 2248.87 to 2695.18 or +446 points or +19% and 37 points per month.
2016 = 1813.47 to 2277.20 or +463 points, or +25% and 38 points per month.
2015 = 1867.86 to 2115.64 or +247 or +13% and 20 points per month.

Brian Twomey