SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold long 7/12/24 at 5651.01 = gain 10.30%;Long SPX 4/12/24 at 5123.41.
Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX (NYSE:GDX) on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Long SPX on 4/12; sold long 7/12 gain 10.30%. We updated this chart from yesterday and what we said yesterday still stands.
“We shown this chart before; the bottom window is the National Association of Active Investment Managers exposure index (manager percent in the market) NAAIM.
Next higher window is the SPX and top window is the RSI for the SPX. This chart goes back to late 2019 and we noted with red lines the times when the RSI reached above 80 and the NAAIM exposure reached 100% or greater.
The previous four cases flipped the market sideways (noted in shaded yellow) for a minimum of a month to as long as three months. We are leaning that this potential sideways market could last into October.”
Last week decline came on higher volume showing a “Sign of weakness” suggesting a decline is in force. The VIX (second window up from the bottom) hit a new short-term high today and suggests the decline has further to go.
We shaded in light green where the TRIN reached near 1.20 and higher and suggests a support area that comes in near 540 range.
To help confirm this area as support the TRIN close should reach 1.20 range or higher and so far that has not happened. A trading range may develop that could last into September or October.
Standing aside for now as we don’t see a good setup. Bigger trend remains bullish and new highs may be seen later this year. We are staying SPX neutral for now.
We updated this chart from yesterday and yesterday we said,
“Yesterday we showed the 50-day average of the Up down volume percent for GDX, which is about 2 ½ months of trading, which in turn looks at the bigger picture and remains bullish for now.
The bottom window above is the 15-day average of the Up down volume for GDX; which is three weeks of data and looks at a smaller timeframe. Short-term trends are intact when this indicator is above -10; the current reading is +17.86.
We shaded in light green when this indicator is above -10 and shaded in light pink when it’s below -10.”
Added to above, the 15-day average of the up and down volume came in at +12.55, and the 15-day average of the advance/decline came in at +9.29 both well above -10.