SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX on 8/19/24 at 5608.25 = Gain 8.14%gain; Long SPX on 8/5/24 at 5186.33.
Covered short 8/2/24 at 5346.56 = gain 3.18%; Short SPX on 7/31/24 at 5522.30.
Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
We are up over 26% this year so far; SPX up around 16%. Above is the daily SPY. The bottom window is the SPY/VIX ratio. SPY closed to a new short-term high yesterday where SPY/VIX ratio made a lower high; showing a negative divergence.
The last couple of days the SPY was running into the mid-July gap near 560 and testing that gap on lighter volume which suggested the gap has resistance. We though at some point the SPY may try and close the gap with a rally to 565 before reversing lower; and that appeared to happen yesterday.
There are two gaps below that may be tested in the coming weeks (see chart above). More on that later as new clues come in. Sold long SPX on 8/19/24 at 5608.25= gain 8.14%; Long SPX on 8/5/24 at 5186.33.
We showed this chart before but shortened the timeframe to better see what may transpire in the coming weeks. When the RSI for the SPY hit above 80 and but below 85; the market usually stalls short term but is never the final high. On July 10 the RSI closed at 81.98 and pretty much marked the high for the short term for the market.
We have an area boxed out in red back in August 2020 which also had an RSI >80 which also stalled the market. There are a lot of similarities between the current RSI >80 and the one in August 2020 and there is a possibility that the current SPY pattern may look similar to the one back in August 2020 when finished. We are still expecting a choppy market for the next 2 months but new highs are expected later this year.
The bottom window is the GDX up-down volume percent with a 50-day average. This indicator can give signals that can last several months. The bullish signals for this indicator are triggered when it closes above “0” and bearish when close below “0”.
We noted in blue when the times when this indicator is above “0”. This indicator closed above “0” (buy signal) back in March 22 and remains solidly above “0” with a current reading of +14.34. The weekly and monthly charts remain on buy signal as well.