Stocks finished the day higher in another volatile trading session. Most gains came following the JOLTS report, which was weaker than expected at 7.6 million versus estimates of 8.0 million.
Meanwhile, last month’s numbers were revised to just over 8.1 million. The JOLTS numbers are so difficult to predict and have such significant revisions that, in my opinion, the only numbers that matter are the revisions.
Still, the S&P 500 liked it, stocks rallied, and the gap from yesterday’s decline was filled. That gap fill now becomes resistance at 6,040 and, with a rise above resistance, paves a path to 6,085.
However, if the index cannot clear that resistance level, we will likely see the 5,840 gap, which has been open since mid-January.
Getting beyond the very short-term, though, I still think that where the stock market goes from here is based on where bond yield goes, and for now, the 10-year is still hovering around the 4.5% level.
But that is going to be changing over the next couple of days, I would think, given the ADP, ISM, Productivity, and Jobs numbers coming this week and the CPI report early next week.
The problem for the 10-year is that if it falls below 4.5%, it could head back to 4.4% and then down to 4.15%.
The quarterly refunding announcement today at 8:30 a.m. will also have a say, especially if the Treasury signals that it plans to issue more debt on the back of the curve.
The data is also likely to shape inflation expectations. The RINF ETF shows that inflation expectations are at a point of no return.
A break out above $33.50 on this ETF would most likely be a sign that the market fears inflation is not only sticky but may very well be due to accelerate in the future.
Finally, Bitcoin survived its weekend try of $91,000 again, but it appears to be putting in a lower high.
This continues to be at risk of a break of $91,000, especially with an RSI trending lower while trading below its 10-day exponential moving average, which the latter has served as resistance the past two days.