A setback and a bounce Friday but leaving upside forces from Thursday’s surge higher through resistances at 2894.75, 2905.75 and 2933.5 and from last Tuesday’s initial rebound, to leave the bias back higher Monday.
There is a wealth of data to monitor this week, with key for the S&P 500 probably Tuesday's release of the US CPI data and Thursday's Retail Sales. You can see more fundamental details here on the FX Explained MacroWatch.
We see an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT with risks now for a shift back to neutral above 2961.0.
For Today:
· We see an upside bias for 2940.75; break here quickly aims for 2945.0, maybe key 2961.0 and 2979.5.
· But below 2911/10 quickly opens risk down to 2899.0 and 2893.75, maybe 2883.25.
Intermediate-term Outlook - Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 2732.25/31.75.
· Lower targets would be 2637.0 and 2579.75. What Changes This? Above 2961.0 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above 3014.25 is needed for an intermediate-term bull theme.
