👀 Ones to watch: Undervalued stocks to buy before they report Q3 earningsSee Undervalued Stocks

S&P 500: A Look Ahead

Published 12/30/2018, 01:11 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
US500
-
US10YT=X
-

Just as the recent bout of excessive pessimism can have an unusual discount pricing impact, what occurs near the end of the market cycle is often excessively optimistic. Using the Investor Value Index as a guide vs the last 2 market tops, S&P 500 market cycle top potential remains roughly 50%+ premium to Value Investor Index. In December 2020 this would be $4,245 or well above current levels. This is not a prediction, but a guess based on excess market pricing in 2000 (over 100%) and 2007 (~65%) which could occur with an optimistic surge in market psychology that results in many investors chasing prices characteristic of speculative tops.

SP500 vs SP500 Value Investor Index

A market top has always followed the 10-year Treasury Bill rate spread falling below 0.2%. Today we are 0.4% but may see some widening with changes to Dodd-Frank regulation of smaller bank mtg lending.

I spoke about this potential several years ago. It is not a firm prediction because, as experience has shown, predicting market prices dependent on market psychology is impossible. Take this with a large dose of salt as unknown future events will influence market prices unpredictably.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.