Please try another search
For southern hemisphere dwellers such as myself, September brings spring, but for the S&P 500 September brings sinister seasonal statistics. Over the period 1964-2016 September has been the month with the worst average return (average -0.4% m/m) and the lowest probability of a positive return (returns were positive for the month 'only' 45% of the time). With a long list of potential concerns e.g. North Korea, government shutdown, super storms, high valuations, low cash holdings, low implied correlations, euphoric sentiment readings, and monetary policy normalization... it's quite straightforward to make a case for a bearish or cautious bias short-term, even without seasonality. So while seasonality doesn't work all of the time, when it lines up with other factors it tends to make you pay attention.
Looking across the 1964-2016 period, September has seen the worst average monthly price performance.
Delving into some of the statistics, September also sees the lowest probability or proportion of positive returns across the months - and from a seasonal standpoint is typically the climax of a cluster of weaker months in that "sell in May" period.
• Trump’s trade war, U.S. jobs report, and last batch of Q4 earnings will be in focus this week. • Costco's earnings report is seen as a potential catalyst for growth, making it a...
Home improvement retailers Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD) turned a corner, and their Q4 2024 earnings reports confirmed it. The corner is a return to comparable store...
One of our old flames, a former Contrarian Income Portfolio holding, has pulled back sharply in recent weeks. Time to buy the dip in this 4.3% dividend? Let’s discuss. Kinder...
Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?
By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.
%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List
Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.
I feel that this comment is:
Thank You!
Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Add a Comment
We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:
Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.
Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.
Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.