Semiconductors Struggle, Retail Wobbles—Is Biotech the Next Play?

Published 03/04/2025, 01:21 AM

Over the weekend I warned about the weakness in the Semiconductor sector (SMH). 

I also wrote about Granny Retail XRT, and how important it is for that sector to stay alive. 

Both SMH and XRT are not giving bulls warm and fuzzies. 

In fact, outside of the gold and silver futures, there is not much to be cheerful about. 

However, since it was Technical Monday, and the Family offers us a great technical guide, I am focusing right now on Biotechnology IBB. IBB Weekly Chart

While the current chart (weekly) does not make us jump up and down for joy, it does at least offer us some levels to watch for opportunities. 

On the weekly chart above, IBB is breaking under the 200-week moving average. 

That is not exactly a good sign. 

However, since it is a weekly chart, it is the price this coming Friday that will be most important. IBB Daily Chart

On the Daily chart, the momentum and the price are declining together. 

The price shows huge support at 130.  

IBB is on par with the S&P 500 on the Leadership indicator. 

While IBB struggles it is still above the January 6-month calendar range low (red horizontal line). Should 130 hold, we can look for a reversal. IBB Monthly Chart

The best news is that this sector still has a chance. 

Looking at the longer timeframe, monthly, IBB is maintaining its move above the 23-month moving average (blue). 

Essentially, I chose to write about this sector as we see a lot of support between 130-135. 

Hence, should IBB hold and turn upward, there is a very low risk and potentially high reward. 

ETF Summary 

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below) 

  • S&P 500 (SPY) 570-575 now an area to watch for support. 
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) It would be healthy to see this pop over 214 and hold 
  • Dow (DIA) 432 support must hold 
  • Nasdaq (QQQ) Broke the January calendar range low and now has to hold and get back over 500 
  • Regional banks (KRE) 60 area support-a move over 62 better 
  • Semiconductors (SMH) 220 support. 240 resistance 
  • Transportation (IYT) 67-68 support 
  • Biotechnology (IBB) 130 support 135 resistance  
  • Retail (XRT) 71.13 was last Septembers low.  
  • iShares 20+ Treasury Bonds (TLT) Testing major resistance 

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