The S&P made an early high of 1976.30 then dropped over 17 points to the day’s low, all before lunchtime. The afternoon saw a slow climb back, with a high-volume close at 1967.
The MiM (MrTopStep imbalance Meter) forecast a large buy imbalance in the closing hour of trading and sure enough, the MOC was 1.3 billion shares to the buy side. That’s a large volume for a summer Tuesday but something we saw coming in the Trading Room.
The up-a-day-down-a-day price action of this option expiration week underscores the lack of conviction among traders. While the positive factors in the economy continue to drive bullish sentiment, we also have significant unrest overseas and a sense that the market may just be trying to pull in more longs before correcting sharply, given how long we have gone (over 60 days) without even a 1% daily change up or down.
Watch for more ups and downs this week; however, we still think the week will end up positive overall.
HIGH: 1976.30 Early
LOW: 1959.00 Mid-Morning
LAST: 1967.00 Down 4 Handles
TOTAL VOLUME: ESU 1.8mil (200k Globex); SPU 5k
MOC: BUY 1.3bil
Up a Day, Down a Day During Expiration
FOR TOMORROW:
MBA Purchase Applications
PPI/ FO
Treasury International Capital
Atlanta FED Business Expectations
Housing Market Index
Janet Yellen speaks to the House Financial Comittee
EIA Petroleum Status Reports
Richard Fisher Speaks
Beige Book
Follow the option stats:
Today: up 13 / down 17 of last 30
Tomorrow: up 17 / down 13 of last 30
Thursday: up 20 / down 10 of last 30
Expiration Friday: up 14 / down 16 of last 30
TraderMinute webinar this Thursday July 17, 3:30pm CST/4:30pm EST…Dont Miss It!