Stocks reversed yesterday, and the close below 3,900 indicates short-term weakness. The sectoral reaction to retreating yields is worrying. Yesterday's session means a reality check for prior reasonable expectations:
(…) The index is likely to advance, but the engine is going to be tech this time – not value stocks. I view this as a deceptive, fake strength in the bull market leadership passing over to value inevitably next. That‘s why I expect the S&P 500 advance to unfold still, a bit rockier than it could have been otherwise.
Tech faltered yesterday, and neither the other sectors were convincing. Rotation within stocks didn't work yesterday or the day before, and that's concerning for the stock market bull health in the short term. As in, the path ahead would be truly rockier, and accompanied by brief, sharp selloffs such as the one bringing S&P 500 futures to 3,865 moments ago. The bull market isn't over by a long shot. All we're going through is a recalibration of the rising inflation. I still stand by my year-end call for $SPX at 4200.
Commodities are under the greatest pressure now. And copper and oil signals do not bode well for the immediate future. These are likely starting consolidation of post-November 2020 gains. They are no longer front-running inflation expectations. This also has consequences for silver, which is more vulnerable here than the yellow metal now.
Gold is again a few bucks above its volume profile $1,720 support zone, and miners aren't painting a bullish picture. Gold is resilient when faced with the commodities selloff, but weak when it comes to retreating nominal yields. The king of metals looks mixed, but the risks to the downside seem greater than those of catching a solid bid.
That doesn‘t mean a steep selloff in a short amount of time just ahead. Rather, it means continuation of choppy trading with bursts of selling here and there.
What could change my mind? Decoupling from rising TLT yields returning – in the form of gold convincingly rising when yields move down.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
Treasuries And Inflation Expectations
Volume behind the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) upswing is drying up, and S&P 500 sectors are sensing another turn to the downside. Utilities aren't getting anywhere, while FAANG is as weak as could reasonably be, which doesn't bode well for stocks.
Commodities showed daily resilience as inflation trades meekly turned around. But make no mistake, inflation expectations appear getting questioned on a short-term basis, and the more volatile commodities feel that.
Gold And Miners
The precious metals sector remains under pressure, and the renewed and visible miners underperformance highlights that. Yesterday's gold upswing happened on lower volume than the preceding downswing, adding to the woes. Silver remains more vulnerable to the downside than gold, and miners aren't painting a bullish picture at all.
Summary
With the tech underperformance returning to the fore, the S&P 500 is short-term exposed, but the momentarily elevated put/call ratio shows not too much downside left as prices approach the 50-day moving average. Once value stocks turn upwards, the stock bull market would be running again.
Until gold and silver miners show outperformance again, both metals remain vulnerable to short-term downside – silver more so than gold, which could catch a bid as a safe haven play. But should gold strength return on declining yields, that would be another missing ingredient in the precious metals bull market.