Today we have another look at the 23-month moving averages.
The first one for context is of the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY).
SPY cleared the 23-month in 2023.
SPY tested the 23-month moving average after the breakout in October 2023.
SPY closed today on new all-time highs.
One could say that SPY entered an expansion phase last year and is, well, still expanding.
In contrast, the next chart is of Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and its 23-month moving average.
We know that if the price clears that MA, then we will assume that the stock has more room to run with a now 2-year business cycle expansion.
Nonetheless, the stock fell after earnings and now we use the support level of $77-80 to gauge the company’s health.
In 2023, KRE was the first sector in the Family to signal a warning in March.
That is when SPY fell to test its 23-month and held it, telling us that the bank debacle while a bit destabilizing, was not a buy opportunity against major support.
Presently, the 23-month MA sits at $51.30.
Today it traded to a high of 51.75, settling at 51.04 or just below the 23-month MA.
Hence, while KRE has been in contraction really since 2022, it now stands a chance of going into expansion.
We are not there yet, but keep your eyes on
- KRE holding $49-50.
- KRE closing the month over the 23-month MA and staying above there for a great low risk trade opportunity.
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
ETF Summary
- S&P 500 (SPY) Near all time highs
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 210.80 ATHs
- Dow (DIA) 387 support and 400 resistance
- Nasdaq (QQQ) New all-time highs
- Regional banks (KRE) Compelling but not there yet
- Semiconductors (SMH) New ATHs now 230 support
- Transportation (IYT) 64 support 67 resistance -still relatively weak
- Biotechnology (IBB) 137 now pivotal while 140 next resistance
- Retail (XRT) Closed red and looking vulnerable so eyes here and on IYT
- iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Heading to the top of the recent range and back over the 50-DMA