Good morning, everyone. The big day is finally here! Just think, in a few hours, we can actually trade again. As we wait out these final few pre-Powell pauses, here’s a glance at a couple of very interesting phenomenon going on.
Looking at the /ES futures, it seems that our old trendline friend is still being respect. This broken trendline, found on both the /ES and the SPDR® S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), is acting as our first line of defense (AKA resistance). It’s not the end of the world if it does get violated (which happened on another, higher trendline earlier this month, to no negative consequence) but it would be awfully nice if it managed to contain prices anyway, as it has done recently.
A more important level is illustrated on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, which is a major Fibonacci retracement level. Take note of what a good job it has been doing lately:
Take a big step back, you can see how prices have been hemmed in quite cleanly.
But take a much farther step back (which shows the whole of the entire retracement, from one extreme to the next), you can see how the bulls actually have one prospective ally waiting in their corner: a cup with handle pattern. In other words, if the /NQ can push past this Fibonacci, the cup pattern is complete, and the bulls have a real opportunity to push this thing all the way up to the next Fibonacci.
I am sitting on my hands (figuratively speaking: after all, I have a standing desk) until well after the announcement and deep into Powell’s press conference. I’ve got a full 25% cash waiting in the wings, which I’ll deploy if and only if the conditions seem favorable.