EU and U.S. futures are stable, awaiting today's data on U.S. inflation, which will be decisive for the next movements of the indices.
The threat of a recession is getting closer, creating a climate of pessimism in the markets, driven by the many alarms raised by investment banks.
Today’s inflation numbers will be the most important macro data of December. A faster-than-expected collapse in inflation will set off a new rally in the market.
The market expects inflation to drop from 7.7% to 7.3%: a figure below 7.3% would represent a positive surprise.
Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX, FTSE MIB Futures, IBEX 35 Futures: The rebound has almost exhausted its strength with the Christmas rally anticipated by the markets by a couple of weeks.
For today I expect a greater-than-expected drop in inflation in the U.S. which will give further impetus to the markets thanks to the hopes of easing the restrictive policies of the central banks.
We saw in November what a boost any indication of easing the restrictive policy can give the markets. We exploited the situation properly with an excellent Buy operation on the Nasdaq 100 index near the market lows, a position that is still open.
Starting in 2023, things will change: we are close to the end of the rate hikes cycle, and I advise you not to miss the following articles to keep up to date.
Natural gas: We’re seeing a pronounced recovery due to the severe cold in the U.S. The rebound will not last long, though, and like last time it will be reabsorbed in a few days by the market. In the long run, the situation is interesting.
Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage. Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers.
In the short term, one must be careful to avoid impulsive purchases. On the supply side, the reopening of export plants which have been offline for some time is creating domestic excess production, which, added to the seasonality, is potentially very negative for gas prices.
The technical rebound is a selling opportunity. I will evaluate a gas entry only in the $ 4.50 area, where I expect to see prices by the end of December.
Crude oil: The rebound is mainly driven by the alarms raised by investment banks about a possible recession in 2023, which will lead to a collapse in oil demand.
But be careful; the price cap, although not penalizing Russia, could increase demand for American oil, which would be very positive for prices.
Furthermore, the Chinese oil demand held back by COVID will start to pick up in 2023, and OPEC is ready to intervene with a production cut to support prices in the event of a new collapse.
This adds to the fact that oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, another promising factor. With that said, I remain positive over the long-term with a $90 target.
I currently have a Buy position with an average price of $75. You can contact me to follow up on the operation.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN): As written in previous articles, already at the beginning of 2022, the exceedingly high price of the stock was anticipating a collapse.
I remain pessimistic, as the group's profitability has practically vanished this year, and the prospects for 2023 are also negative.
According to my model, the stock is worth $70, so it can go further down.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): The judicial vicissitudes of Elon Musk, accused by Richard Tornetta of receiving $ 56 billion in compensation in 2018 for having achieved, as CEO of Tesla, 'easy performance goals' set ad hoc by the board of directors, are weighing on the stock value.
This alleged unjust enrichment would have been obtained 'without even requiring his full-time presence in the car company' and would have served to finance 'the dream of colonizing Mars.
Added to this are the lower prices of flagship products in China due to weakening demand and the increasingly threatening competition in Europe with Stellantis NV (NYSE:STLA).
Also, Musk is increasingly distracted by his Twitter venture. As written at the beginning of the year, according to my model, the stock is worth $170.