The financial markets are relatively steady so far as markets await FOMC meeting. DJIA closed mildly lower by -26.51 pts, or -0.15%, at 17977.24 overnight. The index lost some upside momentum ahead of 18351.36 historical high. But so far there is no clear sign of topping yet. Nikkei is also steady in Asian session, staying in tight range around break even. US 10 year yield breached 1.9 handle and is showing strength to for 2.0 handle. WTI crude oil retreats mildly and is defending 43 at the moment but the recent up trend remains intact. In the currency markets, Sterling is firm as markets pared Brexit bets but otherwise, major pairs and crosses are stuck in range.
Fed fund futures are pricing 0% chance of a rate hike by Fed this week and this is the general consensus of the markets. Nonetheless, recent comments from Fed officials argue that Fed is still on track for two rate hike this year. And that happen in June and December. Thus, a major focus this week will be any chance in the language in FOMC statement that hints on a June hike. Currently markets are pricing in only 23% chances of rate hike in June. But the pricing for at least one hike by September is 49% and 71% by December. That's quite significantly higher than prior month's pricing around 40% by September and 55% by December.
Taking a look at dollar index, bullish convergence condition is seen in daily MACD, suggesting loss of downside momentum. However, price actions from 93.62 short term bottom are clearly corrective. Thus, the near term trend hasn't reversed yet. Another low below 93.62 is likely. But we'd expect further loss of momentum and strong support should be seen around 92.62 key support level to finally bring near term reversal.
On the data front, UK will release BBA mortgage approvals today. But main focus will be in US session, where durable goods, S&P Case Shiller house price and Conference Board consumer confidence will be released.