Markets Demand a Fed Pivot, Not Pause

Published 06/14/2023, 02:13 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

It’s honestly hard to believe there was a time in the history of the universe that Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) behaved like this:

NVDA Price Chart

Now, of course, it’s a TRILLION dollar company, almost entirely because of this AI insanity. It wasn’t that many years ago that there was never each such thing as a trillion dollar company, and now it’s becoming commonplace. The bullish arrogance, of course, is absolutely off the charts………

Image

Don’t get me wrong. I do NOT screw with Nvidia. This thing is a merciless beast:

NVIDIA Price Chart

It is a totem, however, of the madness which has gripped the entirety market. Wednesday brings us our 4th (out of 8 annually) FOMC shindig. By way of the Event Markers feature, I’d like to point out the relationship these meetings (red vertical line) had with the market (SPDR® S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) in particular) ever since the Rolo bottom. 100% of the time, there was an excited run-up to the big day. And 100% of the time, it slumped (sometimes just briefly) once Powell stepped away from the rostrum.

SPY Chart

I can pretty much guarantee three things about FOMC meeting:

  1. Powell will lie through his teeth and say everything they do is for the public (as opposed to the billionaires he actually slavishly services);
  2. They will announce no rate change and a desire to “wait and see” what happens;
  3. He will pledge to be data-driven (AKA response quickly to the demands of his masters)

People don’t just want a pause, though. They want a pivot. And you know something? I do too. Because I’ve got those events marked as well.

SPY Chart

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