Below is the full quote given to a major news organization on Sunday morning at 6:00 AM EST. The question was about guessing market reaction and economic damage from Trump's travel restrictions.
Treasury notes and bonds are not likely to sell off much. They may even rally in price as a little flight to quality moves global funds into them and as risk is taken off.
Stocks may react negatively for two reasons. First the market has gone up strongly since election—1800 Dow points in a straight line. So it is ripe for a correction and is extended in valuation metrics.
For these current market prices (20,000 Dow, 2300 on S&P) to be justified, the Trump agenda must unfold perfectly. But the reverse is underway, and fragmented policy combined with obfuscation is now a growing detriment to growth acceleration.
Simply put: broadbrush policies like this people barrier impede growth and certainly do not accelerate it. Trade barriers and tariffs in the goods market are unhealthy for economic growth. Trump’s order extends that barrier policy to services and to skills that are in the human capital realm, not the physical or manufacturing capital realm.
Trump has now set back the positive elements of global exchange in both goods and services.
He impairs knowledge transfers. For example, one of the large exports of America is education. Our universities sell courses and academic degrees, and foreigners come here and buy them and mostly pay cash in US dollars.
Billions are transferred each year. University education for Americans is subsidized by foreigners who occupy seats in classrooms and do so as paying customers. Look at any of our schools for evidence. Ask any dean or provost what his school's financial structure would look like if there were no foreign students enrolled.
Trump has dealt a blow to higher education with an executive order. The pain will be felt by Americans.
No good can come from this bludgeoning approach to policy making. But damage can take years to repair. Trust is fragile and requires consistency and application of truth for believability. Thinking people quickly realize that basing policy on "alternative facts" is very dangerous.
I worry—for our country, for our financial markets, for our schools, and for my grandchildren.