All of the action off of last Thursday’s new all-time high has the right look of an incomplete correction after a completed July upleg from the July 4 electronic low at 5560.25 (135.80) to the July 27 high at 5996.75 (145.96).
If the Nasdaq ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) breaks 5844.75 (142.30), the index will become increasingly vulnerable to a press toward targets of 5777 and 5725.
That said, as long as last week's lows in the vicinity of 5850 — 142.50: the larger June-July high-level — the base-like accumulation pattern remains intact and potentially bullish, pointing to upside targets of 6032 (146.30) and possibly to 6142.75 (148.77) thereafter.
In other words, QQQ is in a transitional period as we speak. It's either in the early phase of a developing deeper correction or in a bullish digestion phase prior to launching into a new upleg to new all-time highs.
My sense is that we should watch Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) for clues.
If AMZN is unable to climb back above 1001 on a closing basis at a minimum — and unable to recover beyond 1033-1040 in the upcoming hours/days — then it should roll down toward 960-950, and possibly to 910-890.
Thus, as AMZN goes, so goes the Nasdaq and QQQ.
