Nikkei tumbles sharply on weak economic data from Japan but yen is mildly higher. The Tankan large manufacturers index dropped to 6 in Q1, down from 12, below consensus of 8. Large manufacturing outlook dropped to 3, down from 7, below consensus of 6. Non-manufacturing index dropped to 22, down from 25, below consensus of 24. Non-manufacturing outlook dropped to 17, below consensus of 21. Large all industry capex dropped -0.9% versus expectation of -0.7%. They are talks that the across the board weak Tankan readings would pressure BoJ to take further actions in the upcoming meeting on April 28. Also, there are speculations that BoJ would lower inflation forecast for the coming two fiscal years at a quarterly review. For fiscal 2016, inflation could be projected to be 0.5%, down from January's projection of 0.8%. For fiscal 2017, inflation could be projected to be 1.5%, down from January's projection of 1.8%.
China official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in March, better than expectation of 49.3 and back above 50. Non-manufacturing PMI rose to 53.8. Caixin China manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 versus expectation of 48.3. The set of data argues that slowdown in China might be starting to bottom out. And there could be additional fiscal and monetary stimulus from the government and PBoC to boost growth.
US non-farm payroll and ISM manufacturing will be the main focus today. NFP is expected to show 208k growth in March, unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom. ISM manufacturing index is expected to rise back to 50.8 in March. Dollar has been under selling pressure this week after dovish comments from Fed chair Janet Yellen regarding the "gradual" rate path. Barring exceptional surprises, reactions to today's data could be muted. Elsewhere, Swiss will release retail sales and SVME PMI. Eurozone will release PMI manufacturing final and unemployment rate. UK will also release PMI manufacturing.