Invest Not in Politics but in Economics

I enjoy sharing with you, my new and devoted readers, the notes I send out to media producers.

In this case, I'll share my notes with a follow up of how the main themes played out. Then, I'll map out a plan for this coming week.

Let's dig in. 

Notes:

• Silver and gold flying and have more room
• Copper resilient
• Oil most likely bottomed
• Bitcoin starts a seasonal potential turn up
• XRP ETF is huge
• Long term still huge fan of alt energy and EVs
• Modern Family-Trans has held up ok
• Growth and SMH back to leading
• Retail on watch XRT over 74 looks like a confirmed double bottom-that will spur some consumer discretionary stocks esp. those based on my vanity trade
• Like right now: TAN SSYS BLOK HOOD NVO SLV GDX COPX SLG
  

How did I do?

The chart at the top is of the ETFs for gold and silver GLD and SLV.

GLD-SLV-Daily Chart

Futures in gold traded over 2600 while silver futures traded around 31.

• To this part of the notes, silver and gold flying and have more room, let’s think.

Debt remains high, government spending will most likely persist, the CPI and PPI numbers represent a slice of inflation, but not the whole picture, and the dollar fell.

Add to that, the Fed will most likely cut the rates.

Hence, spending and stimulus are happening as if we were in a deep recession. We are not. This is a slowdown from some overzealousness and thus, both spending and stimulating could be quite inflationary.

• Gold and silver (and miners) look ripe.
• Both are outperforming SPY.

What would support a more inflation narrative now, is if silver begins to outperform gold. That is yet to happen.

And as for cryptocurrencies and the Economic Modern Family?

• How did I do?
• Copper resilient 
• Oil most likely bottomed 
• Bitcoin starts a seasonal potential turn up 
• XRP ETF is huge 
• I did pretty good as all manifested this past week.
• Let’s look now at 2 predictions from the notes.
• Long term still huge fan of alt energy and EVs

TAN-Daily Chart

• Copper looks resilient.
• Oil rallied back from the lows to test $70 a barrel.
• Bitcoin indeed looks as though it bottomed end the week close to 60k.
• XRP will become a trust, which brought buyers into Ripple. And, moving to alt energy…
• The chart of TAN, solar ETF, is a prediction more than anything for right now.
• TAN seems to have bottomed, taking out the lows from early August this past week and then rallying to close near the highs of the day.
• The next day TAN gapped higher and remains in consolidation mode until it clears the 50-DMA.
• The momentum has improved.
• The TAN: SPY performance is basically on par. TAN is back above the July 6-month calendar range low.
• TAN has a lot of upside potential.

XRT-Daily Chart

How did I do?

• Retail on watch XRT over 74 looks like a confirmed double bottom-that will spur some consumer discretionary stocks esp. those based on my vanity trade
• Perhaps my boldest call as so many doom and gloomers surfaced about the plight of the consumer while I touted no recession and the vanity trade.
• The double bottom depicted by the thimbles is still working itself out.
• It looks good; however, we would like to see XRT change phase back to bullish. And we would like to see XRT outperform the SPY while momentum increases.
• Nevertheless, XRT is our most promising sector right now and of course, the Granny of the Economic Modern Family.
• And there you have it.
• Bold, accurate calls, with follow-up, plus areas for you to look at this week.

ETF Summary

• (Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
• S&P 500 (SPY) 560 now pivotal
• Russell 2000 (IWM) 210 pivotal 220 resistance
• Dow (DIA) Near all-time highs
• Nasdaq (QQQ) 465 support 477 resistance
• Regional banks (KRE) 54 support 56 resistance
• Semiconductors (SMH) 230 support 240 pivotal
• Transportation (IYT) Has to hold above 65 clear 67.00
• Biotechnology (IBB) 145 support
• Retail (XRT) 73.50 support 76.50 resistance
• iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) If you learned nothing else from us, junk bonds never went risk off and closed on new yearly highs