Crude oil is now trading near $65.00 is supported by easing of lockdowns in the US and Europe. It is likely to increase fuel consumption due to eased travel restrictions.
The US is signing pandemic curb in New Jersey and Connecticut, also the European Union has planned to open up to more foreign visitors who have been fully vaccinated and hold a Digital Green Certificate. However, fuel demand in India has plunged as the recent surge in new COVID infections.
Global economic data were supportive of industrial growth and energy demand. German March retail sales rose +7.7% m/m, against expectations of +3.0% m/m and the biggest increase in 10 months.
On the inventory front, as per the EIA report released last week; US crude oil inventories as of Apr. 23 were -0.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were -2.6% below the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were right on the 5-year average.
US rig count data are watched as an early indication of oil production. As per Baker Hughes report, active US oil rigs fell by -1 rig in the week ended Apr. 30 to 342 rigs, well above August's 15-year low of 172 rigs.
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended Apr. 27, net long for crude oil futures plunged by 10.272 contracts to 489.711 for the week. Speculative long position slipped by 567 contracts, while shorts declined –by 9,705 contracts.
Crude oil prices are likely to stay firm while holding above 20 days EMA of $62.99 and 50 days EMA of $61.16, meanwhile, it may find immediate resistance near $67.02 and $68.20.