The Dollar was trading mostly unchanged on Tuesday as there was little in terms of fundamental data. Gold stopped its fall and traded also unchanged as the Dollar remained steady and the US Treasuries stopped the rates rise on Tuesday.
Oil was trading down for the second day in a row this week as the data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that the gasoline stockpiles increased significantly more than expected. While oil stockpiles were down, the fear of lack of demand by distilleries kept the prices down. OPEC and major oil producing non-OPEC countries are in talks to extend production cuts. This week in Russia oil/energy ministers from around 30 countries are participating in the Russian Energy Week. Oil traders will carefully look at the statements from that meeting.
US equity indices were again higher as the major indices, with the exception of the NASDAQ (US Tech 100) hit all-time highs again on Tuesday. This time industrial companies led the ascend as the US Basic Materials ETF was trading 0.56% up and the US Industry ETF was up 0.46%.
Cryptocurrencies could not keep the momentum and retraced slightly. After the Wall Street Journal brought a story on Monday that Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is considering offering Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to its customers, its CEO Lloyd Blankfein tweeted that he is keeping an open mind about Bitcoin and compared the rise of cryptocurrencies with the time fiat paper money replaced gold in the banking system. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin were down by around 2.5% on Tuesday night. Bitcoin Cash received another blow and traded over 5% lower below the $400 level.
Wednesday the European Union releases its PMI and Retail Sales statistics, while from the US we expect numbers from the ADP Employment Report and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) also releases its oil and gasoline stockpile figures on Wednesday.
EUR/USDThe EUR/USD traded mostly unchanged on Tuesday amidst a lack of market moving fundamental data. The markets are still waiting to see how the Trump administration will push through the proposed tax reform.
The intention by the Spanish region of Catalonia to secede from Spain did not seem to affect the common currency much on Tuesday anymore as Spanish indices also closed only worse than other major European equity indices.
Wednesday the European Union releases its PMI and Retail Sales statistics, while from the US we expect numbers from the ADP Employment Report and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.
Pivot: 1.173
Support: 1.173 1.1695 1.167
Resistance: 1.1775 1.18 1.1835
Scenario 1: long positions above 1.1730 with targets at 1.1775 & 1.1800 in extension.
Scenario 2: below 1.1730 look for further downside with 1.1695 & 1.1670 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Gold traded mostly unchanged, while temporarily reaching a new low on Tuesday. The slightly higher US Treasury rates and stable US Dollar saved Gold from another day of major losses.
Gold lost over 6.5% from its high in September after it became apparent that the Federal Reserve could increase rates still this year.
Besides the fundamental economic data, the markets will be watching how the Trump administration will position itself on whether Janet Yellen should continue serve as chair of the Federal Reserve.
Pivot: 1277
Support: 1268 1262 1258
Resistance: 1277 1281 1286.5
Scenario 1: short positions below 1277.00 with targets at 1268.00 & 1262.00 in extension.
Scenario 2: above 1277.00 look for further upside with 1281.00 & 1286.50 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
Oil was again under pressure on Tuesday. Late in the trading session oil seemed to be moving to break-even but was pushed back down due to stockpile figures published by the American Petroleum Institute (API).
While the crude oil stockpiles were 4.079 million barrels down and thus lower than expected, oil remained under pressure due to high buildup of gasoline inventories with up by 4.19 million barrels, compared to a market expectation of buildup of around one million barrels.
On Wednesday the Energy Information Administration (EIA) also releases oil and gasoline stockpile figures. Oil markets could be moved by sudden statements from OPEC countries which are more or less formally discussing the way forward after the current output cut agreement until March next year. Russia (not formally an OPEC member) and Saudi Arabia are in extended talks and as major oil and gas producers could lead the way for new agreements.
Pivot: 50.75
Support: 50.05 49.75 49.25
Resistance: 50.75 51.3 51.75
Scenario 1: short positions below 50.75 with targets at 50.05 & 49.75 in extension.
Scenario 2: above 50.75 look for further upside with 51.30 & 51.75 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is capped by a declining trend line.
US equity indices closed higher on Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30), S&P 500 (US 500) and the Russell 2000 (US 2000) reaching all-time highs.
The biggest gains were in the manufacturing/industry sector with the US Basic Materials ETF trading 0.56% up and the US Industry ETF up 0.46%.
Ford which presented its plan for the future to include electric cars as all its major competitors was up by 2.24%. However it was outshined by General Motors (NYSE:GM) being 3.08% up on Tuesday and 7.7% this week as it presented a major all-electric strategy on Monday committing to produce 20 electric car models within 6 years.
On Wednesday we will see in the US MBA Index data, the ADP Employment Report and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.
Pivot: 2522
Support: 2522 2517.5 2512
Resistance: 2535 2540 2550
Scenario 1: long positions above 2522.00 with targets at 2535.00 & 2540.00 in extension.
Scenario 2: below 2522.00 look for further downside with 2517.50 & 2512.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI advocates for further upside.