The US Dollar continued its recovery and traded higher against a basket of major currencies on Monday, with the US Dollar Index (USDX) closing 0.41% higher. Speeches by FOMC members reinforcing the market’s belief in rate hikes in 2018 pushed the Dollar higher.
Gold closed almost unchanged on Monday while tensions in the Middle East continue, the falling Dollar eased upwards momentum. Oil closed slightly higher also possibly driven by developments in the Middle East, while strong US production limited upside momentum.
US equity indices closed mixed, while the S&P 500 (US 500) and the NASDAQ 100 (US Tech 100) reached all time high levels. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) surged up by 6.26% which puzzled analysts because no hard data was released to explain such a move.
After an upbeat trading over the weekend, most significant cryptocurrencies closed lower, while Ethereum was able to remain up following its recent surge over the $1000 level. Reports from China indicated that the government intends now not only to clamp down on cryptocurrency trade, but also target miners of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin fell over 10% during the course of Monday’s trading.
For Tuesday German data on global trade and industrial production is expected. France will publish merchandise trade statistics and the European Union its unemployment rate. Switzerland is due to release Adjusted Real Retail Sales statistics and Canada its housing starts numbers. In the Asian trading session on Wednesday China will release consumer and producer price index data.
The EUR/USD traded again lower against the Dollar as recent speeches by FOMC members increased the sentiment of possible rate hikes in the US this year. After on Monday three FOMC members spoke, speeches by other three members are scheduled for the rest of this week. Retail sales and the economic sentiment in the Euro zone was better than expected with the EC Economic Sentiment being at 116.0 (expected 114.8 / previously 114.6), however German manufacturing orders over the last month were with -0.4% lower than expected (-0.1%).
For Tuesday German data on global trade and industrial production is expected. France will publish merchandise trade statistics and the European Union its unemployment rate.
Pivot: 1.2 Support: 1.1935 1.191 1.188Resistance: 1.2 1.2015 1.204 Scenario 1: short positions below 1.2000 with targets at 1.1935 & 1.1910 in extension. Scenario 2: above 1.2000 look for further upside with 1.2015 & 1.2040 as targets. Comment: the RSI shows downside momentum.
Polish Złoty fell by over 1% against the strong Dollar on Monday despite higher demand for housing loans in December. The weak currency helped the WIG20 (+0.75%) gain more than most other European stock indices. On Wednesday the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is due to make a decision on the benchmark interest rate.
Pivot: 3.4639 Support: 3.4639 3.454 3.448Resistance: 3.4897 3.4956 3.5016 Scenario 1: the upside prevails as long as 3.4639 is support. Scenario 2: the downside breakout of 3.4639 would call for 3.4540 and 3.4480. Comment: the RSI is above 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the pair is trading above both its 20 and 50 MAs (respectively at 3.4619 and 3.4554).
WTI Oil
Oil traded slightly higher on Monday, still close to the recent 2.5 year high as political turmoil in the Middle East continues to worry traders. On the other hand the prospect of further increases in oil production in the United States keeps upside limited to some extent.
On Tuesday the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release oil stockpile figures, followed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.
Pivot: 61.1 Support: 61.1 60.75 60.3Resistance: 62.2 62.55 63 Scenario 1: long positions above 61.10 with targets at 62.20 & 62.55 in extension. Scenario 2: below 61.10 look for further downside with 60.75 & 60.30 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further upside.
US 500
US equity indices traded mixed on Monday, with the NASDAQ 100 (US Tech 100) and S&P 500 (US 500) reaching again new record high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US 30) closed slightly lower. Utilities (US Utilities ETF +0.99%) stocks gained during Monday trading, but biotech stocks closed significantly lower (US Biotech ETF -1.27%). Electric car maker Tesla (+6.26%) closed significantly higher, while analysts had difficulty to pinpoint the reason for this surge. Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) closed 2.54% lower as airlines in the US struggle with the icy conditions. Delta is due to release earnings numbers on Thursday.
Significant economic data is expected with import/export prices on Wednesday, the Treasury budget on Thursday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday.
Pivot: 2735 Support: 2735 2726 2717 Resistance: 2760 2770 2780 Scenario 1: long positions above 2735.00 with targets at 2760.00 & 2770.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 2735.00 look for further downside with 2726.00 & 2717.00 as targets. Comment: the break above 2735.00 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 2760.00. The index keeps riding on a bullish trend line drawn from end-2017.