The US Dollar traded on Tuesday almost unchanged against other major currencies as the US Dollar Index (USDX) closed 0.05% lower. The South African Rand (ZAR) traded over 1% stronger against the Dollar and again close to the previous weeks’ lows in the USD/ZAR as speculations over the possible removal of controversial president Jacob Zuma intensified.
Gold fell to a three weeks low as with the recovering equity market, investors sold bonds, leading to the US 10 year Treasury note yielding over 2.8%. Higher interest rates put gold under pressure as there is less incentive to put money in non-interest bearing safe-haven products. Oil gained towards the end of the trading session while the API inventory numbers surprisingly showed a draw on crude oil stockpiles.
Equity markets clearly recovered from Monday’s sell-off. While not matching the losses, stock market indices had one of the best trading days in months. Despite the recovery the Volatility Index (VIX) was still around twice as high as before the sell-off, indicating that there is still fear in the market.
Cryptocurrencies were also seen trading higher for the first in days. However this week is still set to be the fifth week in a row for the Bitcoin to trade lower. The US Congress had a hearing on the topic of cryptocurrencies, where among other things the SEC stated that they believe that every Initial Coin Offering (ICO) is a sale of securities, where the agency possesses regulatory oversight. ICOs are a popular way for start-ups to raise money on the cryptocurrency market.
On Wednesday Germany publishes Industrial Production (IP) data, followed by France with Merchandise Trade and Italy with Retail Sales. In the United Kingdom the Halifax House Price Index (HPI) will be published. In the US the Mortgage Bankers' Association (MBA) will release multiple statistics regarding the state of the mortgage market.
The EUR/USD traded at the end of the day only slightly over the closing level on Monday but tested lower boundaries close to the 1.23 level. In the Euro-Zone the German Manufacturers' Orders statistic showed considerable resilience as over the month the level gained 3.8% (expected +0.8% / previous -0.4%), while in the US the trade balance deficit widened to 53.1 billion dollars.
On Wednesday Germany publishes Industrial Production (IP) data, followed by France with Merchandise Trade and Italy with Retail Sales. In the US the Mortgage Bankers' Association (MBA) will release multiple statistics regarding the state of the mortgage market.
Pivot:1.2435Support:1.23151.2281.222Resistance:1.24351.24751.252Scenario 1:short positions below 1.2435 with targets at 1.2315 & 1.2280 in extension.Scenario 2:above 1.2435 look for further upside with 1.2475 & 1.2520 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed to bearish.
Gold
As equities recovered and the US 10 year Treasury yield soared up to over 2.8% after dipping below 2.7% during Monday’s sell-off, Gold fell by over one percent during Tuesday’s trading. The speech by Federal Reserve President James Bullard from St. Louis where he favored lower interest for the future did little to keep gold from declining.
As the state of the job market is taken by the Federal Reserve also under consideration how to plan monetary policy, Wednesday’s US Jobless Claims numbers could be of interest to traders.
Pivot:1333.5Support:1316.251309.51305.5Resistance:1333.51337.751346Scenario 1:short positions below 1333.50 with targets at 1316.25 & 1309.50 in extension.Scenario 2:above 1333.50 look for further upside with 1337.75 & 1346.00 as targets.Comment:the RSI broke below a rising trend line. Prices broke below a rising channel.
WTI Oil
Oil traded higher towards the end of the day as contrary to market expectations the crude oil inventories according to a statistic from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed inventories down by 1.1 million barrels, whereas the majority of traders expected a build in inventories. On Wednesday the Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes its crude oil inventory numbers, which in recent weeks showed sometimes different inventory estimates than those of the API.
Pivot:64.45Support:62.9562.561.8Resistance:64.4565.1565.5Scenario 1:short positions below 64.45 with targets at 62.95 & 62.50 in extension.Scenario 2:above 64.45 look for further upside with 65.15 & 65.50 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed to bearish.
US 500
US equity indices were significantly up on Tuesday after Monday’s sell-off. The gains were in all major indices, such as the S&P 500 (US 500) over 2%. Especially basic materials (US Basic Materials ETF +2.25%) and cyclical (US Cyclicals ETF +1.89%) stocks were higher, while utilities (US Utilities ETF -1.83%) still showed losses.
General Motors (NYSE:GM) (+4.98%) stocks traded higher with higher earnings and margins reported. Snapchat traded only 1.15% higher during Tuesday’s trading session but raced above the $17 IPO prices at times during after-hours trading as the company reported accelerated user growth and sales figures.
On Wednesday among others Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) and Sanofi (PA:SASY) are due to release financial statements, while on Thursday AIG, CVS Health (NYSE:CVS), Nvidia and Twitter are due to release earnings numbers.
Pivot: 2615 Support: 2615 2579.5 2530 Resistance: 2731 2764 2811 Scenario 1: long positions above 2615.00 with targets at 2731.00 & 2764.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 2615.00 look for further downside with 2579.50 & 2530.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside. The index broke above an ascending triangle bottom pattern.