Despite a super-dovish Fed, the greenback gained at the onset of the coronavirus contagion due to strong demand for safe-haven assets and a worldwide cash crunch. Now that the virus outlook has improved and many global economies have reopened (along with 50 U.S. states), risk-on sentiments are coming back and the U.S. dollar is losing. Dollar bullion ETF Invesco (NYSE:IVZ) DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund UUP retreated about 1.9% past month (as of Jun 1, 2020).
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) believes the “steady reopening process, limited evidence of a pickup in Covid infection rates, and encouraging policy actions like progress on the EU Recovery Fund” is leading the investment house to bet against the greenback.
ETFs to Buy
So, investors looking to play the likely weakness in the U.S. dollar could consider the below-mentioned ETFs:
Inverse Dollar
The product Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund UDN seeks to track changes, whether positive or negative, in the level of the Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn) Short USD Currency Portfolio Index - Excess Return (DB Short USD Currency Portfolio Index ER) plus the interest income from the fund's holdings of primarily U.S. Treasury securities and money market income less the Fund's expenses.The fund gained 0.7% past month.
Large Caps
Since large caps have global exposure and benefit from the weakening of the greenback, investors may expect favorable currency translation to boost their earnings. Large-cap SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ASX:SPY) SPY (NYSE:SPY) added 5.2% past month.
Metal ETFs
While reopening of economies would boost manufacturing activities thus benefiting base metal ETFs, a still-edgy investing backdrop would continue to favor precious metal gold prices too. Metal investing is great in a weaker dollar environment as these commodities are priced in the greenback.
Investors can thus expect a pickup in Invesco DB Base Metals Fund DBB (up 5.3% past month) and SPDR Gold Trust (P:GLD) GLD (up 3% past month). Silver could also be a winning option as it acts both as a precious and an industrial metal. Silver bullion ETF iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) SLV) added 22.3% past month.
Non-Currency-Hedged Europe ETFs
The European Commission recently unveiled a plan to borrow 750 billion euros ($826.5 billion) on the market and then disburse to EU countries, which will include 500 billion euros in grants and 250 billion euros in loans. This will help them recover from the coronavirus slump. The move helped the euro to gain. Overall, Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Currency Trust FXE added 1.4% past month.
While non-currency-hedged large-cap Europe ETFs like Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF VGK (up 10.5% past month) would gain on stimulus optimism, small-cap Europe ETFs should benefit more. A stronger euro would make pint-sized European stocks a lucrative bet. iShares MSCI (NYSE:MSCI) Europe Small-Cap ETF IEUS gained 13.1% past month.
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SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD): ETF Research Reports
SPDR SP 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports
iShares Silver Trust (SLV): ETF Research Reports
Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE): ETF Research Reports
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP): ETF Research Reports
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish ETF (UDN): ETF Research Reports
Invesco DB Base Metals ETF (DBB): ETF Research Reports
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK): ETF Research Reports
iShares MSCI Europe SmallCap ETF (IEUS): ETF Research Reports
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