Global stock markets tumble sharply as early results show that Donald Trump is having an advantage against Hillary Clinton in the presidential race. At the time of writing, the New York Times is live forecasting nearly 90% chance of Trump winning presidency. DJIA futures are suffering -500 pts losses on risk aversion. Meanwhile, Japan Nikkei is losing -2.2% and Hong Kong HSI is losing -3%. Gold surges to as high as 1324.3, comparing to today's low at 1268.1. Dollar is under much selling pressure against Yen and Euro but the weakness is overwhelmed by selloff in commodity currencies. More volatility is anticipated as election results are released.
Dollar index powered through 55 days EMA (now at 96.91) and dives to as low as 96.32 so far. While election results would trigger much volatility, the technical outlook is unchanged. Fall from 99.11 isn't finished yet and wold probably target channel support (now at 96.2). Sustained break there will suggest completion of the choppy rise from 91.91 and will turn outlook bearish for 94.07 support and below. Meanwhile, rise from 91.91 is seen as a corrective move, as part of the larger consolidation from 100.39. Hence, in case of another rise through 99.11, much resistance should be seen below 100.39 to limit upside. Dollar index could be back into a long term trend only after Fed's rate path is cleared.
Elsewhere, China CPI rose to 2.1% yoy in October, in line with consensus. PPI rose to 1.2% yoy, above expectation of 0.9% yoy. Japan current account surplus narrowed to JPY 1.48T in September, small than expectation of JPY 1.98T. Australia Westpac consumer confidence dropped -1.1% in November. UK trade balance and US wholesale inventories will be released later today.