Market Drivers June 28, 2018:
- USD/CNY continues to rise
- US GDP on tap
- Nikkei -0.01%
- Dax -.55%
- Oil $72/bbl
- Gold $1250/oz.
- Bitcoin $6100
Europe and Asia:
EUR EZ Eco Sentiment 112.3 vs. 112
North America:
USD GDP (Q1 3rd Rev) 8:30
The dollar was well bid but its upward momentum stalled in the morning European session with both euro and cable bouncing off the lows. The Asian trade was still dominated by trade war concerns as USD/CNY continued to rise hitting its best levels since November of last year.
Still, its beginning to look like the worst of the trade tensions may be behind us – at least for now – as the Trump administration backed off any unilateral trade restriction measure against China.
Aside from China, the eurozone was the other geopolitical focus of the market as the conflict over the migrant policy threatened to topple Angela Merkel’s coalition. Although no compromise on the deal has been reached, the immediate threat of early elections has receded, but this Friday’s EU summit could produce some market moving headlines as the migrant issue remains front and center of EU policy.
The euro continued to find bids underneath the 1.1550 level with 1.1500 remaining the absolute key near-term support. The economic data from the region was neutral with a slight uptick in economic sentiment reports and steady low inflation readings showing that ECB has no price pressures to worry about.
Although the fundamental picture in both Europe and UK remains neutral at best, the two currencies are so grossly oversold that a small bounce may be due on even a modicum of positive risk on flows. As to USD/JPY the pair continues to hold the 110.00 level in the wake of Trump backpedaling on trade policy and will look to 10-Year yields for any upward momentum. The yields on the 10-Year have refused to rally with the benchmark still scraping bottom at 2.83% today. There is little market-moving economic data on the docket with only the 3rd revision of Q1 US GDP scheduled, but if the number is revised upward, it could spur a rally in rates and if the 10-year can climb above 2.85% USD/JPY should move past 110.50 towards the recent swing high of 111.00.