The JPY (Japanese Yen) is in free falling following Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting. After the initial confusion regarding the impact of the new policy changes, traders realized the message doesn’t support the Yen at all.
First, BOJ announced it will introduce the forward guidance principle too. Following the Fed, Bank of England and the European Central Bank lead, BOJ will use the forward guidance from now on, explaining in advance their monetary policy.
This, by itself, is enough to create volatility on the JPY pairs. Forward guidance shifts volatility from current expectations to future ones, making the market even more unpredictable.
Second, BOJ doubled the range which they’ll allow the 10yr yield to fluctuate. While this will give it maneuver to tighten when the time comes, they didn’t do it now, so it isn’t a hawkish decision for the Yen. It merely tweaked the ETF (Exchange Trading Fund) buying program to accommodate even more the Topix index.
The bank also stressed that no potential exit to YCC (Yield Curve Control) is in sight, just to make sure the market participants don’t overreact to the 10yr range increase.
But the main move came from the inflation battlefield. BOJ cut the inflation forecasts, and it indicated that the fight for the all-important 2% inflation target will take longer than initially thought.
Kuroda stressed that today’s decisions are by no means hawkish, pledging to remain committed to keeping the policy highly accommodative. In other words, this is not a step towards normalization.
In a week when two other central banks are due (Fed on Wednesday and Bank of England on Thursday), expect the volatility to be on the rise. Now that the EUR/USD recovered all the post ECB weakness, the focus sits with what the Fed will say in the FOMC Statement and, of course, what the NFP on Friday will shows.
As for the JPY, the path of least resistance seems on the downside. Look for the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY to remain bid on a close above 130.50, respectively 111.50.