The currency market story this week contains many parts however initial focus is on deeply oversold wide range currency pairs: GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD. The primary concentration to oversold and trades is found in GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD.
Why GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD traded to such deep oversold levels is the contention between overbought AUD/USD and NZD/USD Vs neutral to oversold EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
The anchor pairs lack uniformity as AUD/USD and NZD/USD are deficient to range compared to counterparts EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Lack of agreement across the board forced wide range currency pairs into Richter Scale oversold.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD broke above significant points at current 0.7023 and NZD/USD 0.6379 while GBP/USD trades below vital 1.2327 and EUR/USD below 1.0420.
Agreement is rectified by initial shorts to AUD/USD and NZD/USD then long. AUD/USD big break for lower is located at 0.7023 and target at 0.7053. Break of 0.7023 then targets 0.6993 then long to 0.7013. The important point for AUD/USD is 0.7053 to determine the 0.7023 break or higher to 0.7102.
The AUD/USD short trade is clear from overbought and the assistance to shorts is derived from severely overbought AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD and uncertain AUD/NZD. Watch AUD/CAD 0.9009 and AUD/USD 0.7023 while AUD/NZD big break at 1.1012 from the open at 1.1033. Nothing special to AUD/CHF except to follow AUD/USD.
NZD/USD is a replica of AUD/USD with a slight twist. Short NZD/USD targets 0.6409 then decision time to break 0.6379 to target 06290 or long 0.6409 to target 0.6467. NZD/JPY trades overbought, no assistance from neutral NZD/CHF and watch NZD/CAD at 0.8185. Short rallies applies to all NZD as NZD/CHF, NZD/JPY and NZD/CAD. Watch shorts at 0.8305.
EUR/USD ranges from 1.0298 to 1.0175. EUR/USD longs are assisted by oversold EUR/CHF, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD. EUR/USD longs however are located at lower levels to comply with AUD/USD and NZD/USD overbought.
GBP/USD achieved 1.2105 as written last Thursday. Lows traded to 1.2107 and GBP/USD closed at 1.2131 from highs Thursday at 1.0248.
GBP/USD maintains the same story as EUR/USD. GBP/USD trades from 1.2178 to 1.2029. The benefit to GBP/USD longs at lower levels is due to not only comply to overbought AUD and NZD but to oversold GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD.
The problem with EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD longs is both lack range and each are good for about 150 pips higher. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are quite different as both contain much room to roam higher.
USD/JPY’s big break for lower is located at 131.63 and currently trades a wide range from 132.65 to 135.71. We’re short at higher levels.
EUR/JPY’s big break for higher is located at 136.95 and the same 3 week old EUR/JPY story to horrible position. GBP/JPY big break at 161.99 joins the EUR/JPY ranks to last place and horrible position. The better trades as usual are short AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY.
DXY as written for weeks is contained from its new range from 105.00 to 103.00’s. Higher must break 105.49, 105.72, 105.81.
Gold traded 37 points last week and 41 points 2 weeks ago. SPX traded 86 points last week and 89 points 2 weeks ago. WTI traded 7 points last week and 11 points 2 weeks ago.
As DXY maintains tiny ranges, gold and commodities will follow by maintaining short ranges.