We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.
The table below provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.
If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we publish both values in the table.
E-Mini S&P 500 (ESZ17)
The trend is bullish, the impulse wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback buying opportunity on the Daily timeframe will appear after the correction formation. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 15-16.
COT net position indicator continues to decrease and major players’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.
E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ17). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
American dollar remains in the downtrend, another correction came to an end last week and the impulse wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 20-22.
Last CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and major players’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.
Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Euro (EUR/USD)
Euro remains in the uptrend, another correction came to an end last week and the impulse wave develops. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 28-30.
COT net position indicator decreased but didn’t reverse and major players’ opinion still corresponds to the market technical picture.
EUR/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
USD/CHF currency pair remains in the medium-term bear trend, the impulse wave develops. USD/CHF short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 29 – December 1. The next target is around the price mark of 0.9730.
CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling franc and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture. It makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.
CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
British Pound (GBP/USD)
Pound remains in the bull trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. The price movement is very active that’s why the reliable market entry is also possible on smaller timeframes. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 15-16.
CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying pound, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
GBP/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
USD/JPY currency pair remains in the medium-term bear trend, the market is around the last broken level on the Daily timeframe, a pullback signal is formed. USD/JPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 29-30.
Large speculators are selling Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
JPY/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
WTI Crude Oil (CLF18)
The oil market remains in the medium-term bull trend, the impulse wave develops. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 29-30.
CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.
WTI Crude Oil (CLF18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
The trend is bullish (for USD/CAD), the market is in the correction. The price is again around the support level on the Daily timeframe, a pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout selling opportunity will be formed.
Anyway, this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading.
USD/CAD long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 24. COT net position indicator increased but didn’t reverse and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
CAD/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Gold (XAU/USD)
The Daily trend is bullish, the correction came to an end. The market is around the support level on the Daily timeframe, a pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear soon or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout selling opportunity will be formed. Anyway, this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading.
Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 10-14. The next target is at 1300$ per troy ounce.
Last CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
Gold (GCG18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Silver (XAG/USD)
The support level on the silver market was broken on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity on the Daily timeframe will appear after the correction formation. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 22-28.
COT net position indicator reversed and large speculators began to sell actively and hedgers began to buy and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
Silver (SIH18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
The market remains in the downtrend and the correction is formed on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level, the highs of November 22-27. Large speculators go on selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
AUD/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD)
The Daily trend is bearish, another correction movement is formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of November 27-29.
Large speculators go on selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Russian rouble (USD/RUB)
USD/RUB curency pair remains in the medium-term bear trend and the correction develops. A pullback selling opportunity will be formed after its completion and its relevance will depend on the market correction depth. COT net position indicator reversed and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
RUB/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Conclusions
In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are Gold, USD/JPY, USD/CAD.
In the near future EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD and GBP/USD can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.
Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.
Good luck in trading!