Financial Markets Weekly Overview For February 12 — 18

www.investing.com/analysis/financial-markets-weekly-overview-for-february-12--18-200289243

By Alexander Mikhailenko | Feb 11, 2018 04:32AM ET

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We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period. If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

E-Mini S&P500

The support level was broken on the daily time frame on Monday, the trend is bearish now. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the daily time frame. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level, the highs of January 26.

At the same time CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying and the professionals’ opinion no longer corresponds to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

S&P 500 E-Mini Daily Chart

E-Mini S&P 500. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

The American dollar remains in the medium-term bear trend and the correction develops on the daily time frame. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the daily time frame, the highs of January 17 – 19. A pullback selling opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout buying opportunity will be formed.

CFTC reports indicate that large speculators began to buy dollar, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

US Dollar Index, Daily

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EUR/USD)

The support level was broken on the daily time frame on Wednesday, the trend is bearish now. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the daily time frame. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the daily time frame, the highs of February 1 – 2.

COT indicator reversed, large speculators began to sell euro and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Euro FX Daily Chart

EUR/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)

USD/CHF currency pair remains in the medium-term bear trend and the correction wave develops. USD/CHF short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the daily time frame, the highs of February 7 – 8. A pullback selling opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout buying opportunity will be formed.

COT indicator increases, large speculators go on buying franc and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the daily trend direction.

Swiss Franc Daily Chart

CHF/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBP/USD)

The support level was broken on the daily time frame on Monday, the trend is bearish now. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the daily time frame. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the daily time frame, the highs of February 1 – 2.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators began to sell Pound and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the daily trend direction.

GBP Daily Chart

GBP/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

USD/JPY currency pair remains in the bear trend on the daily time frame and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the daily time frame. USD/JPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of February 2 – 5.

COT indicator increases, large speculators go on buying yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the daily trend direction.

JPY Daily Chart

JPY/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLH18)

COT net position indicator increases. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

WTI Crude Oil. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

The resistance level was broken on the daily time frame on Wednesday, USD/CAD trend is bullish now. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the daily time frame. USD/CAD long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the daily time frame, the lows of February 1 – 2.

CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying the Canadian dollar and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

CAD Daily Chart

CAD/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAU/USD)

The support level was broken on the daily time frame on Tuesday, the trend is bearish now. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the daily time frame. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the daily time frame, the highs of February 1 – 2.

COT indicator reversed, large speculators began to sell gold and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.

Gold Daily Chart

Gold. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAG/USD)

The silver market remains in the medium-term bear trend and the impulse wave develops on the daily time frame. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the daily time frame. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of January 31 – February 1.

At the same time CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and hedgers are buying. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.

Silver Daily Chart

Silver. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)

The support level was broken on the daily time frame on Thursday, the trend is bearish now. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the daily time frame. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level on the daily time frame, the highs of January 26 – 30.

COT net position indicator increases. Large speculators are buying and hedgers are selling. Professionals’ opinion no longer corresponds to the daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

AUD Daily Chart

AUD/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD)

CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture now.

NZD Daily Chart

NZD/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USD/RUB)

The resistance level was broken on the daily time frame on Monday, USD/RUB currency pair is in the uptrend now. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the daily time frame. USD/RUB long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of February 1 – 2.

COT indicator decreases along with the market and large speculators go on selling rouble and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the daily trend direction.

RUB Daily Chart

RUB/USD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the daily time frame and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are GBP/AUD, EUR/CAD.

In the near future EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the daily time frame are likely to occur no earlier than a week.

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Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

FED

4.50%

Mar 19, 2025

ECB

2.65%

Mar 06, 2025

BOE

4.50%

Mar 20, 2025

SNB

0.50%

Mar 20, 2025

RBA

4.10%

Apr 01, 2025

BOC

3.00%

Mar 12, 2025

RBNZ

3.75%

Apr 09, 2025

BOJ

0.50%

Mar 19, 2025

CBR

21.00%

Mar 21, 2025

RBI

6.25%

Mar 10, 2025

PBOC

3.10%

BCB

13.25%

Mar 19, 2025

US 30	42,612.8	-393.4	-0.91%
US 500	5,752.8	-89.7	-1.54%
Dow Jones	42,579.08	-427.51	-0.99%
S&P 500	5,738.48	-104.15	-1.78%
Nasdaq	18,069.26	-483.48	-2.61%
S&P 500 VIX	24.87	+2.94	+13.41%
Dollar Index	104.16	-0.09	-0.09%

Crude Oil WTI	66.27	-0.04	-0.06%
Brent Oil	69.45	+0.15	+0.22%
Natural Gas	4.279	-0.171	-3.84%
Gold	2,919.70	-6.30	-0.22%
Silver	33.210	+0.076	+0.23%
Copper	4.7748	-0.0192	-0.40%
US Soybeans	1,028.25	+16.25	+1.61%

U.S. 10Y	4.280	+0.013	+0.30%
U.S. 30Y	4.580	+0.021	+0.46%
U.S. 5Y	4.059	+0.001	+0.02%
U.S. 3M	4.306	-0.008	-0.19%
US 10Y T-Note	110.75	-0.09	-0.08%
Euro Bund	127.80	-0.05	-0.04%
10-2 Yield Spread	27.17	+1.56	+6.09%

Apple	235.33	-0.41	-0.17%
NVIDIA	110.57	-6.73	-5.74%
Alphabet A	172.35	-0.67	-0.39%
Tesla	263.45	-15.65	-5.61%
Amazon.com	200.70	-7.66	-3.68%
Netflix	906.36	-84.56	-8.53%
Meta Platforms	627.93	-28.54	-4.35%

Financial Markets Weekly Overview For February 12 — 18

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