After much ECB triggered volatility yesterday, Euro is maintaining gains against other major currency today. The common currency is possibly set to end the week as the strongest one. ECB announced broader than expected stimulus measures to boost growth and inflation. The central bank trimmed all policy rates, lowering the main refi rate by -5 bps to 0%, the deposit rate by -10 bps to -0.4% and the marginal lending facility rate by -5 bps to 0.25%. Moreover, it expanded the size of monthly asset purchases to 80B euro from 60B euro with high quality (investment grade) corporate bonds becoming eligible for regular purchases. ECB also introduced 4 TLTROs (TLTRO II), each with a maturity of 4 years, starting in June 2016. The interest rate on the new TLTROs would be no higher than the refi rate and probably 'as low as' the deposit rate.
However, it was President Mario Draghi's comments that triggered the roller coaster movement in the financial markets. Draghi signaled at the press conference the ECB might not ease further. As he suggested, 'rates will stay low, very low, for a long period of time and well past the horizon of our purchases... From today's perspective and taking into account the support of our measures to growth and inflation, we don't anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further. Of course, new facts can change the situation and the outlook". More in Aggressive ECB Moves Failed to Sustain Risk Appetite, Market Underwhelmed by Draghi's Comments.
In US, according to a survey by the Wall Street Journal, most economists expected Fed to leave interest rate unchanged until June. 76% of economists surveyed expected a hike in the June 14-15 meeting, up from 60% in the prior survey back in February. Only 3% expected Fed to hike this month at the March 15-16 meeting, down from 9% in the last survey. 6% expected Fed to hike in the April 26-27 meeting. According to a Reuters poll, economists expected a 60% chance of hike by mid year.
Elsewhere, New Zealand business NZ manufacturing index dropped to 56 in February. Japan BSI large manufacturing index dropped to -7.9 in Q1. German CPI was finalized at 0.4% mom, 0.0% yoy in February. UK will release trade balance and construction output. US will release import price index. But the more market moving data could be Canada employment.