Where’s Draghi when you need him? It seems unless the head of the ECB is speaking, the Euro goes dull. After finding a small base just above 3500, the Euro bounced but ran into sellers in the prior consolidation area between 1.3585 and 1.3630 we’ve been speaking about in prior commentaries.
For now, with this choppy price action, we suggest playing the wides, meaning look for the wide levels of support and resistance for any plays, as there isn’t much in between right now. Key levels to watch are 1.3675 and 1.3500. A break of either should create some pressure in the direction of the break, but until then – be patient and play the range.
GBP/USD – Deeper Pullback Likely
As mentioned in the members commentary last Thursday, I’m expecting a deeper pullback, likely toward the 1.6700-6800 area before the market pushes higher for another leg up. This was based on the weekly chart, which showed a tendency for the price action to break a level, then pullback into the prior range before pushing higher.
Today the market has rejected the yearly highs again around 1.7050, and thus far, the daily candle is shaping up form an inverted pin bar, which is an attempt to rally, but a failure after finding sellers intra-day. If the pair closes below the big figure at 1.7000, then minimally we should get a pullback towards 1.6912 and likely more towards the base around 1.6830.
If it gets to the lower level, start looking for price action clues to get long.
Crude Oil – Hits First Target
Last Sunday in our weekly market commentary, we suggested to be a buyer on pullbacks into the 105.21 – 104.75 area, suspecting the commodity would re-attack the yearly highs. Last week on Thursday, the price action pulled back right into our role reversal level and buy zone, hitting an intra-day low of 105.09 before finding heavy buying interest, in addition to a with-trend pin bar.
The commodity then shot up 100 points in a matter of a few hours, and hit our first target of 106.75 about a day later, netting at least +150 points, so congrats to all the members who profited from this trade.
Today the pair found sellers, hitting an intra-day high of 107.35, and has now pulled back into 106, so if you haven’t already neutralized the risk after taking profit, we suggest doing so now, and adding in a little more should it come back to the 105 level, which we suspect it will.
For now, watch the pullback into 105 for potential price action clues to see if it will hold. Being the second potential attack on the level, it may need to fail and pullback deeper before finding buyers again.
