Dollar surged sharply as FOMC kept overnight federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% but signaled the possibility of a December rate hike. Dollar index jumped to as high as 97.81 comparing to yesterday's low of 96.46. Futures are also pricing higher chances of rate hike after FOMC statement. Fed future futures implied 43% chance of December liftoff comparing to prior day's 33%. Meanwhile, markets are seeing 67% chance of rate hike by March, comparing to prior day's 57%. Most importantly, equities extended recent rally to close sharply higher. DJIA rose 198.09 pts or 1.13% to close at 17779.52, S&P 500 rose 24.46 pts or 1.18% to close at 2090.35. The reactions in stock suggested that investors responded well to the chance of a December hike and would clear some of Fed's worries.
The biggest surprise to the markets in the FOMC statement was that "in determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation." The phrase "next meeting" explicitly opened the possibility of December hike. Fed also sounded upbeat on the economy as the economy has been expanding "at a moderate pace". Household spending and business investment increased at "solid rates". While there was slowdown in job growth, "underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early last year". Though, inflation continued to run below target. The decision was made with 9-1 vote. Richmond Fed president Jeffery Lacker dissented for the second straight meeting and voted for a 25bps hike.
RBNZ kept official cash rate unchanged at 2.75% as widely expected. The central bank maintained easing bias and noted that "some further reduction in the OCR seems likely". But, "it is appropriate at present to watch and wait". RBNZ noted that "concerns remain about the prospects for slower growth in China and East Asia especially." And, "the sharp fall in dairy prices since early 2014 continues to weigh on domestic farm incomes." Meanwhile, "CPI inflation remains below the 1 to 3 percent target range, largely reflecting a combination of earlier strength in the New Zealand dollar and the 60 percent fall in world oil prices since mid-2014."
Elsewhere, Australia import price index rose 1.4% qoq in Q4. Japan industrial production rose 1.0% mom in September. Eurozone confidence indicators, German unemployment and UK mortgage approvals will be released in European session. The next focus today is US Q3 GDP, which is expected to show 1.9% annualized growth in Q3. US will also release jobless claims and pending home sales. Canada will release RMPI and IPPI.