Dollar remains weak in Asian even though Fed indicated that it's on track for December hike. Sentiments were weighed down by tightening presidential election. While refraining from explicitly noting the timing the next rate hike, the FOMC has sent strong signal that the action would be taken in December. Several changes in the accompanying statement of the November meeting indicated a rate hike is coming. Most importantly, the Fed upgraded its inflation assessment, expecting inflation to rise to the 2% target in the medium term on dissipation of a number transitory factors. The Fed, indeed, suggested in the statement that 'the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen' but the members decided to 'wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives'. More in Fed Upgrades Inflation Outlook, Getting Ready For December Rate Hike.
Also on FOMC:
- Fed Sets Up for December Hike
- FOMC Review: Fed Unchanged as Expected ahead of Election - Says Case for a Rate Hike 'Has Continued to Strengthen'
- Fed Stands Pat - Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged
US equities also extended recent fall as investors turned cautious ahead of the November 8 election. S&P 500 resumed the fall from 2193.81 and reached as low as 2094.00. Technically, 2193.81 is seen as a medium term top on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1810.10 to 2193.81 at 2047.23. At this point, we'd expect strong support between 1991.68 and 2047.23 to bring rebound. However, firm break of 1991.68 will carry rather bearish implication for the medium term.
BoE rate decision is the main focus today. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rate at 0.25% and asset purchase target at GBP 435b. Attention will indeed be on the quarterly inflation report where updated economic projections will be published. The UK economy has so far taken the Brexit referendum rather well in Q3, as shown in recent economic data releases. Still, there are continuous speculations that BoE would deliver additional easing some time next year. Some analysts, however, believed that a set of solid economic projections, coupled with depreciation in Sterling, would give the MPC much room to stand pat. The pound could have a mild bounce today if the projections are well received by the markets.
On the data front, Australia trade deficit narrowed to GBP -1.23b in September. China Caixin PMI services rose to 52.4 in October. Swiss will release SECO consumer confidence. Eurozone will release unemployment. UK will release services PMI. From US, Challenger job cuts, non-farm productivity, jobless claims, ISM services and factor orders will be featured.